In this note
Most renewal conversations I have with landlords start with one question: "Is my rent below market?" It's a fair question. But it skips the one that decides the money: what does it cost me if this tenant leaves?
So I looked at every 12-month residential tenancy in Dubai's Ejari records since 2024. For each unit, I compared what happened when the same tenant renewed with what happened when a new tenant moved in.
The short answer
In 2026 so far, 56% of landlords who replaced a tenant earned less in the first year than if they had simply renewed. In 2025 it was 57%. In 2026, the median switch brought in about 4% less than renewing would have.
That is before painting, cleaning and the time spent finding someone new.
Why the higher rent usually doesn't pay
Two numbers do most of the work.
New tenants aren't paying much more any more. In 2025, a new tenant paid a median 12% more than the tenant before them. In 2026 that premium has fallen to 4.2%, and more than a quarter of re-lets went for less than the previous rent.
Meanwhile, renewing tenants' rents rose a median 3.6% in 2025 and have held flat in 2026.
Empty weeks are common. Two in five new tenants moved straight in. But almost half of units sat empty for more than three weeks, and one in five for more than three months.
Source: Dubai Land Department Ejari records, 1 January to 26 October 2026. 63,803 new-tenant re-lets of 12-month residential contracts; 9,441 gaps over a year left out. A new tenancy starting the day after the old one ended counts as no gap, as does one registered before the old one ended. Rentinit analysis. Dots are measured; the line between them is drawn straight.
Show the numbers(10 ranges of days)
| Days empty | Re-lets | Share | Empty for longer |
|---|---|---|---|
| No gap | 25,552 | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 1–7 days | 2,091 | 3.3% | 56.7% |
| 8–14 days | 3,052 | 4.8% | 51.9% |
| 15–21 days | 3,238 | 5.1% | 46.8% |
| 22–30 days | 3,778 | 5.9% | 40.9% |
| 31–45 days | 4,765 | 7.5% | 33.4% |
| 46–60 days | 3,118 | 4.9% | 28.5% |
| 61–90 days | 4,561 | 7.1% | 21.4% |
| 91–180 days | 7,340 | 11.5% | 9.9% |
| 181–365 days | 6,308 | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| All re-lets counted | 63,803 | 100% | |
| Over 365 days, left out | 9,441 | Gaps over a year usually mean the owner moved in, renovated or sold | |
The arithmetic is unforgiving. At a 4.2% premium, about two weeks empty wipes it out. Half of re-let units were still empty after two weeks. Every week after that is a loss.
A new tenant is a fresh risk
There is a second cost that never shows up in a rent comparison.
A tenant who has already renewed with you has a track record. Of the tenants who had renewed at least once, 85% renewed again the following year. Of tenants in their first year, only 62% did.
So replacing a steady tenant doesn't just risk one empty month. It makes another move, and another empty month, more than twice as likely next year.
Where switching can still make sense
The picture isn't the same everywhere.
Source: Dubai Land Department Ejari records, 1 January 2025 to 26 October 2026, 12-month residential contracts. The chart shows 15 communities most readers know by name; the table holds all 32 residential areas with at least 1,200 re-lets, 3 of them under their DLD area name because they have no community name (Al Thanyah Fifth, Al Merkadh and Wadi Al Safa 5), and leaves out 2 industrial areas. “Earned less”: first-year rent from the new tenant minus the empty days, against renewing at the community’s median renewal increase over the same period. Rentinit analysis.
Show the numbers(32 communities)
| Community | Re-lets | New-tenant premium | Median days empty | Earned less than renewing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MirdifIn the chart | 1,298 | +15.3% | 10 | 29.9% |
| Al MuhaisnahIn the chart | 2,114 | +19.0% | 18 | 31.3% |
| Al KaramaIn the chart | 2,472 | +11.1% | 21 | 42.4% |
| Al Mamzar | 1,536 | +8.3% | No gap | 43.4% |
| Wadi Al Safa 5 | 2,429 | +15.6% | 24 | 50.1% |
| Al QusaisIn the chart | 2,093 | +14.9% | 21 | 51.0% |
| Al Warqa'a | 2,936 | +14.6% | 23 | 53.0% |
| DIP | 1,573 | +14.0% | 16 | 53.0% |
| Al Warsan | 3,857 | +12.1% | 19 | 53.3% |
| Dubai South | 1,679 | +9.1% | 28 | 53.7% |
| International CityIn the chart | 7,747 | +11.1% | 11 | 55.3% |
| Liwan | 1,227 | +12.1% | 20 | 56.2% |
| Dubai Silicon OasisIn the chart | 4,224 | +15.4% | 23 | 56.5% |
| Jabal Ali | 1,960 | +8.3% | 18 | 58.8% |
| Al Mararr | 2,980 | +6.1% | No gap | 58.9% |
| Al Jaddaf | 2,878 | +4.6% | 31 | 60.1% |
| Bur DubaiIn the chart | 6,193 | +9.8% | 24 | 60.4% |
| Al NahdaIn the chart | 7,813 | +12.5% | 27 | 60.7% |
| Jabal Ali First | 4,991 | +10.6% | 19 | 60.8% |
| Al Satwa | 1,846 | +8.2% | 25 | 61.2% |
| Dubai Sports City | 2,089 | +8.0% | 22 | 62.3% |
| Dubai Media City | 2,060 | +10.8% | 26 | 62.4% |
| Dubai Production City | 2,201 | +12.9% | 25 | 62.7% |
| Al BarshaIn the chart | 4,707 | +9.3% | 22 | 63.9% |
| DeiraIn the chart | 9,582 | +7.7% | 5 | 64.8% |
| JVCIn the chart | 7,629 | 0% | 25 | 66.3% |
| Al Thanyah Fifth | 1,800 | 0% | 26 | 66.7% |
| JVTIn the chart | 4,408 | +5.4% | 20 | 66.8% |
| Al Merkadh | 1,712 | −1.3% | 12 | 68.2% |
| Business BayIn the chart | 3,889 | 0% | 28 | 70.1% |
| Dubai MarinaIn the chart | 3,244 | 0% | 36 | 72.4% |
| Downtown DubaiIn the chart | 1,626 | 0% | 33 | 72.6% |
In older, high-demand areas like Mirdif, Al Muhaisnah and Al Karama, new tenants still paid 11–19% more. Units there typically re-let in 10–21 days, so switching came out ahead more often than not.
In Downtown, Dubai Marina, Business Bay and JVC, the median new tenant paid no more than the one before. Units sat empty for 25–36 days. About seven in ten switches there earned less than renewing.
So my rule of thumb is this. Replacing a reliable tenant is worth considering only when:
- The unit is in genuinely high demand. You have reason to believe it will re-let within a couple of weeks.
- The gap to market is large. Large means bigger than the increase the RERA index allows at renewal.
- The handover can be clean. A new tenant can move in close to the day the old one leaves.
If any of those is missing, a modest renewal is usually the better deal.
What Hazel does for landlords
I keep a renewal radar on the units you link to me. I like to start the conversation about four months before expiry, which leaves time to decide before the 90-day notice deadline. Then I:
- Check what the RERA index allows for the unit.
- Compare the rent with completed rents in the same building, where the data supports it, rather than with listings.
- Draft the renewal notice if you want to propose a change.
With a portfolio, the same radar covers every linked unit, so each renewal reaches you with time to spare.
Have a renewal coming up? Add your property, and I'll reach out on WhatsApp to put its renewal on my radar: the RERA index, completed rents in your building, and the notice deadline.
How Hazel measured this
- Source: Dubai Land Department Ejari tenancy records, 1 January 2024 to 26 October 2026, refreshed 26 October 2026.
- Scope: residential units only; 12-month contracts on a single unit.
- Pairs: consecutive tenancies on the same unit, either the same tenant renewing or a different tenant moving in.
- Days empty: the days between the old contract's end date and the new one's start date. A new tenancy starting the day after the old one ends counts as no gap.
- Gaps over a year are excluded, because they usually mean the owner moved in, renovated or sold.
- New tenancies that start before the old end date count as no gap.
- "Earned less": the new tenant's rent over the year, minus the empty days, compared with renewing at that year's median renewal increase (2026: 0%; 2025: 3.6%).
- Not included: painting, cleaning, maintenance or other turnover costs. Including them would make switching look worse, not better.
- Repeat renewals: based on tenancies that started in 2024 and were followed by another registered contract on the same unit.
General information about Dubai residential tenancies, not legal advice. Rules on rent increases and notices: Dubai Law No. 33 of 2008 and Decree No. 43 of 2013.