Dubai rentals held flat while secondary sales shifted hard toward smaller-ticket stock
In the 4 weeks to 2026-06-07, rents were steady on volume and price; secondary deal value fell as Dubai South and apartment-heavy trades dominated the tape.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageRentals were flat week-to-week but softer year-on-year on AED/sqm. Secondary sales volume and ticket size fell over the settled 4-week window, with Dubai South taking 22% of deals.
Rentals
Clock: TRANSACTED = DLD registrations for the 4 weeks to 2026-06-07. ASKING = live listings on 2026-06-21. Confidence: high for citywide DLD figures; sample sizes shown.
Citywide movement
| Rental market | 4 weeks to 2026-06-07 | Prior 4 weeks | Change | Year ago | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 9,690 | 9,676 | +0.1% | 11,544 | -16.1% |
| Median rent | AED 85,292 | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | AED 85,292 | 0.0% |
| Avg rent | AED 123,686 | AED 121,943 | +1.4% | AED 123,784 | -0.1% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 932 | AED 919 | +1.4% | AED 961 | -3.0% |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 1,010 | AED 1,006 | +0.4% | AED 1,056 | -4.4% |
| Total rent value | AED 1.20B | AED 1.18B | +1.6% | AED 1.43B | -16.1% |
Rent Monthly Activity
H1 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
The rental market was not weak over the latest settled four weeks; it was mostly dull. Volume was flat and pricing edged up by AED/sqm versus the prior four weeks. The year-on-year comparison is softer, with deals down 16.1% and avg AED/sqm down 4.4%.
The volume comparison straddles Eid timing. That distorts registration flow. Prices are the cleaner read here: rents are not accelerating citywide, and the AED/sqm measure is below last year.
Year-to-date grounding
| Rental YTD through 2026-06-07 | 2026 | Same span 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 65,507 | 68,687 | -4.6% |
| Median rent | AED 85,292 | AED 85,292 | 0.0% |
| Avg rent | AED 122,333 | AED 120,669 | +1.4% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 977 | AED 959 | +1.9% |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 1,078 | AED 1,059 | +1.8% |
| Total rent value | AED 8.01B | AED 8.29B | -3.3% |
YTD says the market is still slightly higher on AED/sqm than 2025, but the latest 4-week window is below last year. That is not a crash. It is cooling at the margin. Estate agents will survive; some may even stop saying “last unit” for a full 11 minutes.
Where rentals moved
| Community | Deals | Median rent | Avg AED/sqm | Vs prior 4wk AED/sqm | Vs year ago AED/sqm | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 793 | AED 73,251 | AED 972 | -4.1% | -10.2% | High volume, softer per sqm |
| Business Bay | 493 | AED 90,309 | AED 1,295 | -1.4% | -6.6% | More deals, lower ticket mix |
| Dubai Marina | 470 | AED 110,378 | AED 1,288 | -3.9% | -7.4% | Asking still above clearing |
| Downtown Dubai | 303 | AED 130,446 | AED 1,437 | +1.6% | -11.0% | Short-term firmer, YoY lower |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 252 | AED 140,481 | AED 1,425 | -3.3% | -8.4% | Volume up, price/sqm softer |
| JLT | 238 | AED 80,275 | AED 1,095 | -5.6% | -9.2% | Clear softening |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 201 | AED 64,220 | AED 829 | +1.2% | +3.4% | One of the few YoY gainers |
| Town Square | 199 | AED 105,361 | AED 919 | -0.2% | -2.1% | Stable per sqm, higher median mix |
| Dubai South | 192 | AED 90,309 | AED 789 | +0.1% | -2.4% | Stable price/sqm, lower volume |
| Deira | 179 | AED 73,251 | AED 837 | -5.2% | +1.1% | Monthly dip, YoY still up |
The largest rental corridors are showing more pressure on AED/sqm than on headline rent. That usually means unit mix is doing some of the talking. In Business Bay and Dubai Marina, live asking prices remain well above the rents that actually cleared.
Segment mix
| Bedrooms, where tagged | Deals | Median rent | Avg AED/sqm | Vs prior 4wk deals | Vs prior 4wk AED/sqm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 3,223 | AED 72,125 | AED 1,062 | +2.2% | +0.4% |
| 2BR | 1,963 | AED 110,378 | AED 1,037 | +3.6% | -0.3% |
| 3BR | 427 | AED 185,635 | AED 1,158 | +8.1% | +1.1% |
Room tagging is incomplete in DLD rental registrations, so the table excludes untagged deals. Among tagged units, 1BR and 2BR carried the market. 3BR volume rose faster, but the sample is much smaller.
Supply versus demand: live asking gap
| Community | Live rent listings | Live median asking rent | DLD median rent, 4wk | Asking gap | DLD deals, 4wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 14,723 | AED 75,000 | AED 73,251 | +2.4% | 793 |
| Dubai Marina | 7,461 | AED 125,000 | AED 110,378 | +13.2% | 470 |
| Business Bay | 8,481 | AED 104,000 | AED 90,309 | +15.2% | 493 |
Live supply is heavy in the three busiest apartment rental corridors. JVC is closest to clearing levels. Dubai Marina and Business Bay have a double-digit asking premium versus recent DLD medians, which is where negotiation room sits.
Trajectory
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jun 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Quarterly AED/sqm rose through 2025, peaked in 2025-Q4 at AED 1,136/sqm, held high in 2026-Q1 at AED 1,116/sqm, then slipped to AED 1,010/sqm in 2026-Q2 to date. The latest 4-week window fits that cooling pattern rather than a one-off blip.
Secondary
Clock: TRANSACTED = DLD secondary-sale registrations for the 4 weeks to 2026-06-07. ASKING = live listings on 2026-06-21. Confidence: high for citywide DLD figures; sample sizes shown.
Citywide movement
| Secondary market | 4 weeks to 2026-06-07 | Prior 4 weeks | Change | Year ago | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 9,272 | 9,940 | -6.7% | 12,485 | -25.7% |
| Median sale price | AED 1.10M | AED 1.45M | -24.1% | AED 1.34M | -17.6% |
| Avg sale price | AED 1.67M | AED 2.24M | -25.5% | AED 2.12M | -21.3% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 17,618 | AED 18,845 | -6.5% | AED 17,871 | -1.4% |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 18,967 | AED 21,002 | -9.7% | AED 19,855 | -4.5% |
| Total value | AED 15.45B | AED 22.23B | -30.5% | AED 26.43B | -41.6% |
Sale Monthly Activity
H1 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Secondary sales weakened more clearly than rentals. The headline price drop is partly mix: average traded size fell to 83 sqm from 101 sqm in the prior 4 weeks. Still, AED/sqm also fell, so this is not only smaller units changing hands.
Eid timing also affects registration volume, but the price/sqm decline is material enough to treat seriously.
Year-to-date grounding
| Secondary YTD through 2026-06-07 | 2026 | Same span 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 64,633 | 67,671 | -4.5% |
| Median sale price | AED 1.45M | AED 1.41M | +2.8% |
| Avg sale price | AED 2.13M | AED 2.09M | +2.2% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,571 | AED 17,435 | +6.5% |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 20,734 | AED 19,570 | +6.0% |
| Total value | AED 137.81B | AED 141.17B | -2.4% |
YTD secondary pricing is still ahead of last year on AED/sqm. The latest 4-week window is the weak patch, not the full-year picture.
Where sales moved
| Community | Deals | Share of city deals | Median price | Avg AED/sqm | Vs prior 4wk AED/sqm | Vs year ago AED/sqm | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 2,079 | 22.4% | AED 676k | AED 17,921 | +2.2% | +1.9% | Huge volume, smaller-ticket stock |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 713 | 7.7% | AED 575k | AED 15,528 | n/a | n/a | New active corridor in this window |
| Dubai Land | 539 | 5.8% | AED 906k | AED 15,671 | -3.4% | +2.8% | Stable value corridor |
| JVC | 471 | 5.1% | AED 1.03M | AED 15,681 | -7.1% | +2.1% | Volume down, price/sqm mixed |
| DIP | 463 | 5.0% | AED 896k | AED 11,967 | -8.3% | n/a | Lower price/sqm stock cleared |
| Dubai Islands | 303 | 3.3% | AED 3.29M | AED 32,501 | +0.4% | +25.3% | Premium pricing held |
| Business Bay | 220 | 2.4% | AED 1.88M | AED 22,762 | -8.8% | -8.6% | Softer per sqm despite high median |
| JVT | 205 | 2.2% | AED 1.08M | AED 17,385 | -1.9% | +14.5% | Still stronger YoY |
| Dubai Marina | 140 | 1.5% | AED 2.60M | AED 28,552 | -4.3% | -10.5% | Liquidity lower, premium gap wide |
| Arjan | 134 | 1.4% | AED 931k | AED 16,693 | +0.2% | +12.6% | Price/sqm held up |
Dubai South dominated the tape. That pulled the citywide median down because the median transacted price there was AED 676k. The market’s centre of gravity moved outward and smaller.
Segment mix: apartments versus villas
| Segment | Deals | Median price | Avg AED/sqm | Vs prior 4wk deals | Vs prior 4wk AED/sqm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 8,756 | AED 1.05M | AED 19,057 | -3.3% | -9.0% |
| Villas | 516 | AED 2.99M | AED 17,435 | -41.6% | -19.8% |
Apartments accounted for 94.4% of secondary deals. Villa trades fell sharply versus the prior four weeks, and their AED/sqm also dropped. This is the clearest segment concentration in the week’s data.
Supply versus demand: live asking gap
| Community | Live sale listings | Live median asking price | DLD median sale, 4wk | Asking gap | DLD deals, 4wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 2,865 | AED 1.85M | AED 676k | +173.7% | 2,079 |
| JVC | 6,534 | AED 1.15M | AED 1.03M | +11.9% | 471 |
| Business Bay | 5,471 | AED 1.90M | AED 1.88M | +0.8% | 220 |
Dubai South’s asking-to-transacted gap is mostly mix: live listings include much larger and higher-ticket homes than the units that cleared in the DLD window. JVC has a normal negotiation gap. Business Bay’s median asking price is close to the median transaction price, but its AED/sqm fell, so unit mix still matters.
Yield: strongest liquid apartment areas checked
| Area | Typical scope | Market yield | Conservative–optimistic range | Rent confidence | Price confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Sports City | 1BR apartment, area-level | 6.76% | 4.58%–9.81% | High | High | Highest in this liquid set |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 1BR apartment, area-level | 6.63% | 4.68%–11.19% | High | Low | Price confidence weaker |
| Damac Hills 2 | 1BR apartment, area-level | 6.61% | 5.20%–7.30% | High | High | Smaller sample than JVC |
| Town Square | 1BR apartment, area-level | 6.56% | 5.64%–8.39% | High | High | Stable yield band |
| JVC | 1BR apartment, area-level | 6.54% | 4.81%–9.14% | High | High | Deepest transaction base |
| Dubai South | 1BR apartment, area-level | 5.53% | 4.27%–7.89% | High | High | Strong liquidity, lower yield |
These are area-level benchmarks, not building-specific. Among the liquid apartment corridors checked, Dubai Sports City screens strongest on market yield with high rent and price confidence. Dubai Silicon Oasis is close, but its sale-price confidence is low, so I would not treat the extra 0.09 percentage point as a decisive edge. Decimal points are not wisdom; they just dress like it.
Trajectory
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jun 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Quarterly secondary AED/sqm climbed from AED 19,268 in 2025-Q1 to AED 20,960 in 2026-Q1, then eased to AED 20,355 in 2026-Q2 to date. The latest 4-week window is below that Q2 average at AED 18,967/sqm, so the recent weakness is sharper than the quarter-to-date trend.
Caveats
- DLD registrations lag. The transacted window is deliberately fixed at 2026-05-11 to 2026-06-07 to avoid the newest undercounted fortnight.
- Eid timing affects the volume comparison versus both the prior 4 weeks and the same period last year. Price/sqm is the cleaner signal.
- Rental room tagging is incomplete; bedroom segment tables use tagged records only.
- Asking data is live as of 2026-06-21 and measures advertised prices, not achieved prices.
- Yield figures are area-level 1BR apartment benchmarks for selected liquid corridors, not a full building-by-building yield ranking.