Rentals absorbed more stock at flat prices; secondary sales shifted toward smaller tickets
In the 4 weeks to 2026-06-28, rental registrations rose 44.7% versus the prior four weeks while rent per sqm slipped 0.8%; secondary sales volume rose 27.1%, but median ticket stayed flat.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageDubai rentals cleared more units without pricing power. Secondary sales improved from the prior four weeks, but year-on-year volume and ticket sizes were lower as activity moved into smaller homes.
Rentals
Clock: TRANSACTED figures are DLD registrations for the 4 weeks to 2026-06-28. ASKING figures are live listings on 2026-07-11. The latest registration window avoids the newest fortnight because DLD records keep landing after deal date.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jun 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Citywide move
| Rental market | Deals | Median rent | Avg AED/sqm | Total rent value | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks to 2026-06-28 | 12,104 | AED 85,292 | AED 1,000 | AED 1.47B | High confidence: 12,104 deals |
| vs prior 4 weeks | +44.7% | 0.0% | -0.8% | +44.9% | Volume rebounded; price did not |
| vs same 4 weeks year ago | +2.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% | -1.3% | Demand held; pricing softened |
| YTD to 2026-06-28 vs same 2025 span | -1.8% | 0.0% | +1.1% | -0.8% | Broad market is flat-to-slightly firmer per sqm |
The clean read: more rentals cleared, but not because landlords gained pricing power. Compared with the prior four weeks, volume jumped while the median stayed fixed at AED 85,292. Year-on-year, the same window shows a small volume gain and lower rent per sqm.
The prior-four-week comparison is likely distorted by Eid timing and registration lag. Treat the +44.7% volume rise as a clearing rebound, not a sudden change in household demand.
Where it moved
| Community | Deals | YoY deal move | Median rent | YoY median move | Avg AED/sqm move | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 995 | -4.7% | AED 72,247 | -1.4% | -8.8% | High |
| Business Bay | 675 | +16.0% | AED 88,302 | -16.2% | -6.1% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 640 | +5.8% | AED 105,361 | -16.0% | -8.5% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 389 | +11.8% | AED 122,921 | -25.7% | -13.1% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 337 | +44.0% | AED 140,481 | -5.1% | -6.1% | High |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 289 | +32.0% | AED 120,412 | -7.7% | -8.2% | High |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 264 | -5.0% | AED 63,216 | +4.7% | +0.9% | High |
| JVT | 262 | +7.4% | AED 72,247 | 0.0% | +0.2% | High |
| Town Square | 235 | -7.8% | AED 105,361 | +23.5% | -6.1% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Deira | 198 | -28.0% | AED 68,494 | -7.8% | +3.6% | High |
The pressure was most visible in the prime apartment corridors: Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, Business Bay, Dubai Creek Harbour and Dubai Hills all posted lower rent per sqm year-on-year despite healthy deal counts. The affordable inland markets were steadier: Dubai Silicon Oasis and JVT were close to flat, while Deira improved per sqm even with fewer deals.
Town Square is the exception that needs care. The median rent rose, but AED/sqm fell. That usually means a larger-unit mix rather than pure rent inflation. Data has a sense of humour; it is usually mix.
Segment mix
| Bedroom segment | Deals | YoY deals | Median rent | YoY median | Avg AED/sqm | YoY AED/sqm | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 4,156 | +9.2% | AED 70,240 | -6.4% | AED 1,051 | -5.4% | High |
| 2BR | 2,533 | +6.0% | AED 110,378 | -3.8% | AED 1,029 | -4.2% | High |
| 3BR | 546 | +12.6% | AED 180,618 | -10.0% | AED 1,123 | -6.3% | High |
| 4BR | 36 | -14.3% | AED 351,202 | -0.7% | AED 1,349 | +10.2% | Low: 36 deals |
The softening was not confined to studios or one-beds. One-, two- and three-bedroom apartments all cleared more contracts year-on-year at lower rent per sqm. That is a broad tenant market signal. The 4BR row is too thin to lead with.
Supply versus demand
| Community | Live rental listings | New live listings | Live median asking rent | DLD median rent, 4 weeks to 2026-06-28 | Asking gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 18,355 | 653 | AED 74,991 | AED 72,247 | +3.8% | Tightest negotiation gap among the large rental markets |
| Business Bay | 9,629 | 336 | AED 100,000 | AED 88,302 | +13.2% | Asking is ahead of cleared rent |
| Dubai Marina | 7,860 | 341 | AED 125,000 | AED 105,361 | +18.6% | Listing expectations are materially above clearing level |
Live supply is thick. JVC alone had 18,355 active rental listings on 2026-07-11, against 995 DLD rental registrations in the settled four-week window. Business Bay and Dubai Marina also show large active stock, and both have asking medians well above what recently cleared.
That does not mean every landlord must discount. It means stale units need to justify the spread with condition, view, furnishing or cheque flexibility. Otherwise the market is already giving the tenant the script.
Pattern, not blip
Quarterly data says the rental market is no longer accelerating. Average rent per sqm moved from AED 1,060 in 2025 Q1 to AED 1,135 in 2025 Q4, then eased to AED 1,116 in 2026 Q1 and AED 1,005 in 2026 Q2. The latest four-week window fits that pattern: volumes can bounce, but price momentum is softer.
Secondary
Clock: TRANSACTED figures are DLD secondary registrations for the 4 weeks to 2026-06-28. ASKING figures are live listings on 2026-07-11. Secondary here excludes off-plan intent and reads what actually transferred in the settled DLD window.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jun 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Citywide move
| Secondary market | Deals | Median price | Avg AED/sqm | Total value | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks to 2026-06-28 | 10,816 | AED 1.11M | AED 19,223 | AED 17.74B | High confidence: 10,816 deals |
| vs prior 4 weeks | +27.1% | -0.6% | +0.9% | +18.8% | Volume recovered; price per sqm edged up |
| vs same 4 weeks year ago | -12.0% | -16.6% | -3.1% | -28.7% | Lower volume and smaller tickets than last year |
| YTD to 2026-06-28 vs same 2025 span | -6.5% | -0.7% | +4.8% | -6.6% | Fewer deals, higher per-sqm pricing |
The secondary market improved versus the prior four weeks, but the year-on-year comparison is weaker. The important split is ticket versus per sqm: median price fell sharply year-on-year because the average sold unit was smaller, while the YTD per-sqm measure is still 4.8% above the same 2025 span.
Again, the prior-four-week volume comparison should be read with Eid caution. It is real clearing, but the calendar is not neutral.
Where it moved
| Community | Deals | YoY deal move | Median price | YoY median move | Avg AED/sqm move | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 2,650 | +374.1% | AED 712,520 | -64.4% | -5.5% | High, mix changed sharply |
| JVC | 652 | -51.7% | AED 991,223 | +5.5% | +0.4% | High |
| Dubai Land | 457 | -27.6% | AED 1.08M | +18.0% | +4.6% | High |
| Arjan | 340 | +25.5% | AED 1.00M | +3.0% | +15.5% | High |
| DIP | 325 | +6.2% | AED 1.00M | -16.0% | -21.9% | High |
| Business Bay | 307 | -56.9% | AED 2.00M | +21.2% | -6.3% | High, mix-sensitive |
| JVT | 307 | -20.3% | AED 1.01M | -0.4% | +13.3% | High |
| Dubai Sports City | 218 | -21.9% | AED 930,000 | +22.3% | +2.0% | High |
| Dubai Islands | 190 | -48.9% | AED 2.92M | +14.2% | +14.5% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 163 | -62.6% | AED 2.75M | +0.8% | -10.7% | High |
Dubai South dominated activity. It recorded 2,650 secondary deals in the four-week window, more than four times the year-ago count. The median price collapse is not a crash signal by itself; the average sold size fell to 59 sqm. That is a product-mix shift toward smaller stock.
Arjan, JVT, Dubai Islands and Dubai Sports City showed price-per-sqm resilience. Dubai Marina and Business Bay had weaker per-sqm moves despite higher median ticket levels, again pointing to mix rather than clean price inflation.
Segment mix
| Segment | Deals | YoY deals | Median price | YoY median | Avg AED/sqm | YoY AED/sqm | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 10,155 | -11.5% | AED 1.05M | -18.0% | AED 19,343 | -3.4% | High |
| Villas | 661 | -18.9% | AED 3.27M | -8.8% | AED 17,371 | +1.8% | High |
Apartments carried the market by volume. Villas were fewer, but held better on a per-sqm basis year-on-year. That is the cleanest secondary segment split this week: apartment liquidity improved from the prior four weeks, while villa pricing did not show the same broad weakness per sqm.
Supply versus demand
| Community | Live sale listings | New live listings | Live median asking price | DLD median sale, 4 weeks to 2026-06-28 | Asking gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 3,050 | 95 | AED 1.82M | AED 712,520 | +155.2% | Not like-for-like; live stock includes larger homes |
| JVC | 8,925 | 329 | AED 1.15M | AED 991,223 | +16.4% | Asking sits above clearing |
| Business Bay | 6,153 | 186 | AED 1.83M | AED 2.00M | -8.8% | Median listing mix is cheaper than closed mix |
The live stock tells a different story by area. JVC has heavy sale inventory and a positive asking gap, so buyers have room to push on ordinary units. Business Bay’s live median is below the closed median, but the area has a wide unit mix; studios and smaller apartments pull the live median down.
Dubai South is the least comparable on median price because the closed market was heavily weighted toward smaller units. On per-sqm terms, live asking averaged about AED 16,083/sqm, below the DLD average of AED 18,139/sqm in the same settled window. That is the more useful read there.
Yield
Area-level apartment yield benchmarks, not building-specific. Confidence is based on transaction sample depth in the benchmark set.
| Area | Market yield | Conservative / optimistic range | Benchmark sample | Confidence | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 8.05% | 7.14% / 8.99% | 747 | High | Strongest screened yield |
| JVT | 7.66% | 5.51% / 10.74% | 1,529 | High | High yield, wider upside band |
| JVC | 6.76% | 5.10% / 8.81% | 2,890 | High | Liquid, still above core-market yield |
| Arjan | 6.64% | 5.30% / 8.24% | 370 | High | Good yield, but smaller sample |
| Business Bay | 6.35% | 4.61% / 8.70% | 3,379 | High | Better liquidity than yield purity |
| Dubai Marina | 6.04% | 2.98% / 13.14% | 1,203 | Moderate | Wide range; building selection matters |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 6.00% | 4.54% / 7.80% | 1,258 | High | Lower yield, stronger end-user profile |
| Downtown Dubai | 5.70% | 4.21% / 7.62% | 491 | High | Core location, lower income return |
The yield table is blunt: Dubai South, JVT and JVC screen best on income. Downtown Dubai and Dubai Hills are not bad assets; they are lower-yield assets. Different job.
Pattern, not blip
Quarterly secondary data still points to higher per-sqm pricing than early 2025, but softer liquidity in 2026. Average AED/sqm rose from AED 19,266 in 2025 Q1 to AED 20,550 in 2025 Q4 and AED 20,961 in 2026 Q1, before easing to AED 20,031 in 2026 Q2. The price level is not broken. The buyer has become more selective.
Caveats
- All transacted figures are DLD registrations for the fixed settled window ending 2026-06-28. The newest fortnight is deliberately excluded because registrations are incomplete.
- Prior-four-week volume comparisons are distorted by Eid timing and delayed registrations. Pricing reads are cleaner than volume reads.
- Asking data is live listing stock on 2026-07-11. It measures seller and landlord expectations, not achieved prices.
- Area medians are not unit-matched. Asking-versus-transacted gaps are negotiation signals, not valuation quotes for a specific apartment or villa.