Eid week cooled registrations; rents held flat as secondary prices softened
In the 4 weeks to 2026-05-31, rental deals fell 9.3% versus the prior four weeks while secondary deals fell 23.1%; live asking rents still sit above cleared rents in the core districts.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageDLD registrations slowed into Eid, so volume is distorted downward. Rents were broadly stable citywide, while secondary pricing softened in May even though year-to-date AED/sqm remains ahead of 2025.
Rentals
Clock: TRANSACTED figures are DLD registrations for the 4 weeks to 2026-05-31 unless noted. ASKING figures are live listings dated 2026-06-14.
Citywide movement
| Rental market | Deals | Median rent | Avg AED/sqm | Total registered rent | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks to 2026-05-31 | 8,071 | AED 85,292 | AED 1,007 | AED 977.1m | High; n=8,071 |
| vs prior 4 weeks | -9.3% | 0.0% | -0.3% | -10.9% | High |
| vs same 4 weeks 2025 | -16.2% | 0.0% | -5.5% | -14.8% | High |
| YTD to 2026-05-31 vs 2025 | -3.9% deals | 0.0% median | +2.2% avg AED/sqm | -2.2% value | High; n=61,592 |
Rent Monthly Activity
Jan–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Registrations slowed, but price did not break citywide. The median annual rent stayed at AED 85,292 against both the prior four weeks and the year-ago window. AED/sqm is weaker than last year, partly because the current window skewed larger: average registered unit size was 126 sqm versus 121 sqm a year earlier.
The volume comparison is not clean. The current window captures the late-May Eid period; the 2025 comparison window does not line up with the same holiday effect. Treat deal-count declines as directionally useful, not a pure demand read. Timekeeping: annoying, but undefeated.
Where rents moved
| Community | Deals | Median rent | Median rent vs prior 4wk | Median rent YoY | Avg AED/sqm YoY | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 679 | AED 73,251 | -2.7% | +1.4% | -9.8% | High; n=679 |
| Dubai Marina | 398 | AED 110,530 | -8.2% | -9.0% | -6.7% | High; n=398 |
| Business Bay | 397 | AED 90,309 | -9.1% | -11.3% | -8.2% | High; n=397 |
| Downtown Dubai | 257 | AED 140,481 | 0.0% | -12.5% | -12.5% | High; n=257 |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 192 | AED 155,532 | +13.0% | -3.1% | -9.6% | Moderate; n=192 |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 180 | AED 64,220 | -2.8% | +6.7% | +5.0% | Moderate; n=180 |
| Deira | 161 | AED 75,258 | +2.6% | +7.1% | +1.2% | Moderate; n=161 |
| Town Square | 153 | AED 108,371 | +6.8% | +16.1% | -2.3% | Moderate; n=153 |
The core apartment corridors softened: Dubai Marina, Business Bay and Downtown all showed lower median rents year-on-year. The outer/value belt was mixed. Dubai Silicon Oasis and Deira posted positive YoY pricing, while Town Square’s median rose but AED/sqm slipped, which points to a larger-unit mix rather than clean price inflation.
Bedroom mix
| Segment | Deals | Median rent | Vs prior 4wk | YoY | Avg AED/sqm YoY | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 2,698 | AED 70,240 | -2.8% | -4.9% | -5.6% | High |
| 2BR | 1,619 | AED 110,378 | 0.0% | -4.8% | -5.9% | High |
| 3BR | 341 | AED 200,687 | +11.1% | +3.8% | -3.7% | Moderate |
| 5BR+ / unclean bedroom coding | 541 | AED 55,189 | -1.8% | -7.3% | -7.5% | Moderate; mixed coding |
The pressure is clearest in 1BR and 2BR apartments, both down around 5% year-on-year on median rent. The 3BR segment held better, though the sample is smaller and the mix is less uniform.
Supply versus demand
| Community | Live asking median | Live listings | Transacted median | Asking gap | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | AED 75,000 | 14,332 | AED 73,251 | +2.4% | High; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=679 |
| Dubai Marina | AED 125,000 | 7,297 | AED 110,530 | +13.1% | High; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=398 |
| Business Bay | AED 105,000 | 8,351 | AED 90,309 | +16.3% | High; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=397 |
| Downtown Dubai | AED 180,000 | 7,351 | AED 140,481 | +28.1% | High; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=257 |
| Dubai South | AED 114,990 | 1,809 | AED 88,302 | +30.2% | Moderate; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=183 |
| Dubai Hills Estate | AED 159,999 | 4,828 | AED 155,532 | +2.9% | Moderate; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=192 |
Live asking rents are still above cleared rents in most major areas. The negotiation room is small in JVC and Dubai Hills, but large in Downtown, Dubai South and Business Bay. That gap is the part of the market landlords dislike reading. Data is rude like that.
Multi-quarter pattern
Rent Quarterly Activity
Oct 2025–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
The multi-quarter pattern is cooling, not collapse. Q4 2025 averaged AED 1,136/sqm, Q1 2026 averaged AED 1,116/sqm, and Q2-to-date averaged AED 1,009/sqm. Volume is also lower in Q2-to-date, but June is not included, so the quarter is incomplete.
Secondary
Clock: TRANSACTED figures are DLD secondary registrations for the 4 weeks to 2026-05-31 unless noted. ASKING figures are live listings dated 2026-06-14.
Citywide movement
| Secondary market | Deals | Median price | Avg AED/sqm | Registered value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks to 2026-05-31 | 8,514 | AED 1.120m | AED 19,052 | AED 14.93bn | High; n=8,514 |
| vs prior 4 weeks | -23.1% | -29.0% | -11.4% | -40.4% | High |
| vs same 4 weeks 2025 | -36.5% | -17.0% | -4.3% | -48.3% | High |
| YTD to 2026-05-31 vs 2025 | -5.5% deals | +3.6% median | +6.3% avg AED/sqm | -2.7% value | High; n=61,711 |
Sale Monthly Activity
Jan–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
May’s secondary window was materially softer than April: fewer deals, lower median prices and lower AED/sqm. The year-to-date view is less bearish: despite lower deal count, median price is up 3.6% and AED/sqm is up 6.3% versus the same 2025 span. The last four weeks look weaker than the medium-horizon trend.
The Eid timing caveat applies here too. The current 4-week window straddles the late-May holiday period, so the volume drop versus 2025 is overstated if read as pure demand loss.
Where secondary activity moved
| Community | Deals | Median price | Median price vs prior 4wk | Median price YoY | Avg AED/sqm YoY | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 1,292 | AED 751k | -46.2% | -54.6% | +2.2% | High; mix shift to smaller stock |
| Dubai Land | 614 | AED 944k | -9.7% | -1.7% | +4.9% | High |
| JVC | 471 | AED 1.000m | -2.9% | +3.7% | +3.7% | High |
| Dubai Islands | 337 | AED 3.245m | +2.6% | +23.8% | +22.7% | High |
| JVT | 228 | AED 1.000m | -10.6% | +19.1% | +20.7% | Moderate |
| Business Bay | 199 | AED 1.865m | -16.0% | +15.1% | -5.6% | Moderate |
| Dubai Marina | 148 | AED 2.500m | n/a | -7.6% | -9.0% | Moderate |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 120 | AED 2.226m | +2.6% | -12.7% | -0.3% | Moderate |
Dubai South dominated volume, but its median price is not a clean price signal: average size was 60 sqm, compared with 112 sqm a year earlier. AED/sqm was slightly higher. Dubai Islands is the cleanest price gainer in this table, with both median price and AED/sqm up more than 20% year-on-year.
Apartments versus villas
| Segment | Deals | Median price | Vs prior 4wk | YoY | Avg AED/sqm YoY | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 7,981 | AED 1.070m | -24.9% | -16.9% | -5.1% | High |
| Villas | 533 | AED 3.000m | -27.6% | -21.6% | +10.1% | Moderate |
Apartments carried 93.7% of secondary deals in the period. Villas showed the larger drop in median price, but AED/sqm was up year-on-year because average villa size fell from 289 sqm to 218 sqm. Smaller villas cleared; the headline median followed the size mix down.
Supply versus demand
| Community | Live asking median | Live listings | Transacted median | Asking gap | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | AED 1.150m | 6,262 | AED 1.000m | +15.0% | High; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=471 |
| Dubai Marina | AED 2.500m | 3,576 | AED 2.500m | 0.0% | Moderate; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=148 |
| Business Bay | AED 1.920m | 5,418 | AED 1.865m | +2.9% | Moderate; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=199 |
| Dubai Islands | AED 3.347m | 2,560 | AED 3.245m | +3.1% | High; live 2026-06-14, DLD n=337 |
| Dubai South | AED 1.864m | 2,813 | AED 751k | +148.2% | Low as a pricing gap; strong mix mismatch |
In secondary, asking prices are closer to clearing prices than rentals in the premium apartment corridors. JVC still shows a clear asking premium. Dubai South’s gap is not an apples-to-apples pricing signal; live listings skew to higher-ticket stock, while recent DLD clearing was heavily smaller units.
Multi-quarter pattern
Sale Quarterly Activity
Oct 2025–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
The market is not uniformly reversing. Q1 2026 averaged AED 20,960/sqm, above Q4 2025 at AED 20,553/sqm. Q2-to-date is lower at AED 20,481/sqm, and May was the weak month. The pattern is late-quarter cooling after a strong start to the year.
Yield
| Area | Market yield | Yield range | Pricing confidence | Sample basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Production City | 9.52% | 8.28%–10.90% | High | Area-level, 2,030 data points |
| International City | 9.46% | 7.93%–11.28% | High | Area-level, 7,968 data points |
| Dubai South | 8.23% | 7.30%–9.20% | High | Area-level, 746 data points |
| JVT | 7.78% | 5.75%–10.63% | High | Area-level, 1,520 data points |
| JVC | 7.18% | 5.51%–9.20% | High | Area-level, 2,869 data points |
| Discovery Gardens | 7.13% | 5.84%–8.53% | High | Area-level, 1,045 data points |
| Business Bay | 6.72% | 5.21%–8.70% | High | Area-level, 3,332 data points |
| Dubai Marina | 5.90% | 2.85%–12.76% | Moderate | Area-level, 1,214 data points |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 4.74% | 2.47%–15.52% | Low | Wide sale-price range |
The strongest yields remain in income-led, lower-ticket apartment markets. Dubai Production City and International City screen best on yield with high confidence. Premium waterfront markets are lower-yield and more sensitive to unit quality, view and building age.
Closing read
For landlords, the rental market is not giving a citywide rent-cut signal, but it is giving a negotiation signal in high-inventory districts where live asking sits well above clearing rents. For sellers, the secondary market needs sharper pricing discipline than it did in Q1. May was softer; YTD is still ahead on AED/sqm. Both can be true. Markets are irritating that way.
Caveats
- DLD figures are registrations, not listing intent. The newest fortnight is undercounted, so this report uses the settled 4 weeks to 2026-05-31.
- The current comparison window includes late-May Eid effects; year-on-year volume declines should not be read as pure demand declines.
- Rental outliers below AED 50,000 and extreme AED/sqm values were excluded by the standard rent filter. Sale figures are unfiltered DLD secondary registrations.
- Live listing medians are asking prices, not achieved prices. Asking-versus-transacted gaps can reflect unit mix as well as negotiability.
- Area-level yield is a screening metric. Building-level yield can differ materially inside the same community.