Rental turnover accelerated as achieved rates softened, while secondary prices held on fewer year-on-year deals
In the 4 weeks to 2026-07-05, rental registrations rose 32.9% and secondary sales 13.2% from the prior period; live asking prices still sit well above achieved levels.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageMore rentals cleared at softer rates. Secondary unit prices held despite lower year-on-year volume, while live asking levels leave buyers and tenants room to negotiate.
Rentals
More contracts cleared, but pricing weakened
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-05 | Vs prior 4 weeks | Vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New rental registrations | 13,757 | +32.9% | +14.1% | High |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -2.3% | High |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 923 | -0.8% | -1.7% | High |
| Registered rent value | AED 1.65bn | +28.2% | +7.2% | High |
Turnover rose without pricing power. The volume jump from the prior four weeks is partly calendar-driven: Eid Al Adha fell inside that comparison window in 2026. The year-ago window began just after Eid in 2025, so its volume comparison is also imperfect. Pricing is the cleaner signal, and it moved lower.
Year to 2026-07-05, 80,725 registrations were recorded, essentially flat year on year (-0.1%). Median rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm rose 1.1%. The latest softness is therefore a recent reset, not a year-long contraction.
The correction is broad across the main corridors
| Area | Deals | Volume vs prior 4 weeks | Avg AED/sqm vs prior | Avg AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 1,198 | +41.8% | -1.3% | -8.2% | High |
| Business Bay | 775 | +44.3% | -3.0% | -7.8% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 751 | +51.4% | -6.5% | -12.8% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 470 | +49.7% | -3.1% | -15.0% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 375 | +41.5% | -4.3% | -5.6% | High |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 307 | +43.5% | -4.2% | +0.8% | High |
| JLT | 333 | +32.7% | -1.9% | -7.0% | High |
| Town Square | 258 | +29.0% | +0.7% | -6.9% | High |
Dubai Marina and Downtown Dubai show the clearest year-on-year correction. Town Square was the limited near-term gainer, while Dubai Silicon Oasis was roughly level against last year. The data does not show a broad group of rental price gainers.
The rebound was not confined to one unit size
| Classified segment | Deals | Volume vs prior 4 weeks | Median annual rent | Median AED/sqm change | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 4,742 | +39.1% | AED 70,240 | -1.4% | High |
| 2BR | 2,865 | +36.6% | AED 110,378 | +0.1% | High |
| 3BR | 657 | +44.1% | AED 180,618 | -2.9% | High |
| Bedroom not classified | 4,667 | +26.5% | AED 100,343 | -1.5% | High volume; weak classification |
One-bedroom homes supplied the most classified contracts. Three-bedroom volume grew fastest, but its unit rate softened most. Studios are not cleanly separable in the registration source, so the data does not support a defensible studio comparison.
Live supply is priced ahead of achieved rents
Live asking inventory as at 2026-07-19.
| Market cut | Live listings | Live median ask | Transacted benchmark, 4 weeks to 2026-07-05 | Asking gap | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai, all rental stock | 136,340 | AED 118,000 | AED 85,292 | +38.3% | Moderate; mix differs |
| Dubai, 1BR apartments | 45,448 | AED 85,000 | AED 70,240 | +21.0% | High; closest like-for-like cut |
| JVC, 1BR apartments | 10,073 | AED 74,999 | — | — | High asking sample |
| Business Bay, 1BR apartments | 4,211 | AED 96,999 | — | — | High asking sample |
| Dubai Marina, 1BR apartments | 3,379 | AED 95,000 | — | — | High asking sample |
| Downtown Dubai, 1BR apartments | 3,140 | AED 125,000 | — | — | High asking sample |
The cleanest negotiation signal is the citywide one-bedroom cut: asking rents are 21.0% above the achieved one-bedroom median. The all-stock gap is wider, but composition explains part of it because live inventory and registered contracts contain different area and unit mixes. It should not be read as 38% automatic discount room.
Rent Trend Comparison
AED per sqm · quarterly avg
Quarterly evidence confirms more than a four-week blip. From Q1 to Q2 2026, average registered rent per sqm fell 15.7% in Dubai Marina, 14.2% in Business Bay, 13.8% in Downtown Dubai and 12.1% in JVC. Early Q3 remains lower, although an incomplete quarter is directional only.
Secondary
Activity recovered from Eid, but remains below last year
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-05 | Vs prior 4 weeks | Vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 10,493 | +13.2% | -22.8% | High |
| Median sale price | AED 1.11m | +1.2% | -16.2% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,286 | +3.8% | +1.5% | High |
| Registered value | AED 17.36bn | +12.2% | -36.1% | High |
Pricing held better than volume. Registrations recovered from the Eid-affected prior window, while median AED/sqm rose 3.8%. Against last year, however, deal count fell 22.8%. The lower total ticket mainly reflects smaller homes: average size fell to 85 sqm from 97 sqm.
Year to 2026-07-05, 75,109 sales were registered, down 7.5% year on year. Median price held at AED 1.40m and median AED/sqm rose 6.4%. That is a slower market, not a broad repricing lower.
Growth is concentrated in selected corridors
| Area | Deals | Volume vs prior 4 weeks | Avg AED/sqm vs prior | Avg AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 2,265 | +9.0% | +2.1% | -4.1% | High; mix shifted sharply |
| JVC | 669 | +41.7% | +1.6% | +2.2% | High |
| Dubai Land | 437 | -18.6% | +0.6% | +2.3% | High |
| Arjan | 361 | +169.4% | +10.8% | +17.0% | High |
| JVT | 322 | +57.8% | +2.2% | +14.1% | High |
| Business Bay | 298 | +35.5% | +7.7% | -5.7% | High |
| Jabal Ali First | 241 | -10.1% | -6.4% | Not comparable | High current sample |
| DIP | 216 | -53.3% | +8.2% | -18.2% | High |
Dubai South supplied 21.6% of all registrations, though its year-on-year ticket comparison is distorted by a pronounced shift toward smaller apartments. Arjan was the clearest defensible price-and-volume gainer. JVT also advanced. DIP was the clearest volume loser and the weakest year-on-year price corridor in this set.
| Segment | Deals | Volume vs prior 4 weeks | Median price | Median AED/sqm change | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 9,784 | +11.8% | AED 1.05m | +3.8% | High |
| Villas | 709 | +37.4% | AED 3.40m | +3.1% | High |
Villas were only 6.8% of transactions but rebounded faster. Their median ticket rose 13.7% because the average home sold was larger. On the cleaner AED/sqm measure, villa and apartment gains were similar.
Live sellers are still testing well above registrations
Live asking inventory as at 2026-07-19.
| Market cut | Live listings | Live median ask | Transacted benchmark, 4 weeks to 2026-07-05 | Asking gap | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai, all sale stock | 113,067 | AED 2.19m | AED 1.11m | +96.8% | Low for negotiation; mix differs materially |
| JVC, 1BR apartments | 4,754 | AED 1.15m | JVC all-stock median AED 0.96m | +19.8% | Moderate; bedroom mix differs |
| Business Bay, 1BR apartments | 2,589 | AED 1.75m | Business Bay all-stock median AED 2.00m | -12.5% | Low; bedroom mix differs |
| Dubai South, 1BR apartments | 662 | AED 1.10m | Dubai South all-stock median AED 0.74m | +48.6% | Low; property mix differs |
The all-market gap is not a direct discount estimate: the listing book contains more premium and larger homes than the transaction mix. JVC gives the cleaner directional signal, with one-bedroom asks about 20% above the area's achieved all-stock median. In Business Bay the relationship reverses, which is precisely why sellers should benchmark by unit type and building rather than rely on the citywide headline.
Sale Trend Comparison
AED per sqm · quarterly avg
The quarterly pattern is split. From Q1 to Q2 2026, average AED/sqm rose 7.2% in Dubai South, 2.7% in JVC and 2.0% in JVT, but fell 12.4% in Business Bay. Early Q3 is incomplete. Affordable and newly delivered corridors retain momentum; some mature central stock is consolidating.
Yield remains strongest in International City
Area-level benchmarks for typical one-bedroom apartments; gross yield before service charges, vacancy and transaction costs.
| Area | Gross yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| International City | 8.7% | High; deep rent and sale evidence |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 6.7% | Moderate; sale range is wide |
| Dubai Sports City | 6.4% | High |
| JVC | 6.4% | High |
| Arjan | 5.2% | Moderate |
Yield Comparison
International City remains the strongest high-confidence yield market in this set. JVC offers less yield but much deeper liquidity. Dubai Silicon Oasis screens well, though its wider sale-price range reduces confidence in the point estimate.
Caveats
- Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window ending 2026-07-05. The newest fortnight is excluded because registrations continue to arrive.
- Rental transactions cover new contracts, not renewals. The standard rent filter removes implausible low values and extreme AED/sqm records.
- Eid timing distorts both four-week volume comparisons. Price per sqm carries more weight than deal-count momentum around these dates.
- Live listings are current to 2026-07-19. Duplicate marketing and relisting can inflate inventory counts.
- Asking-versus-transacted comparisons are labelled where unit mix differs. Those gaps show market tension, not guaranteed negotiation discounts.
- Quarterly averages are mix-sensitive. Q3 2026 is incomplete and used only as a directional check.