Rental turnover accelerated at softer rates while secondary sales lost volume, not price per square metre
In the 4 weeks to 2026-07-26, rent registrations rose 21% from the prior four weeks; secondary deals fell 3%, with pricing broadly flat.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageRentals cleared faster at softer rates, while secondary turnover eased without a broad price break. Live asking still sits well above settled deals, preserving negotiation room.
Rentals
More leases cleared; rates did not rise
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-26 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| New rent registrations | 15,030 | +21.0% | +13.1% |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| Average AED/sqm | AED 992 | -0.7% | -4.2% |
| Registered rent value | AED 1.81bn | +19.8% | +9.5% |
Demand strengthened, but landlords did not regain pricing power. Confidence is high: 15,030 filtered new-rent registrations. The prior window includes the Islamic New Year period, so its volume comparison is directionally useful rather than a clean calendar effect.
Year to 2026-07-26, 90,558 registrations cleared, up 1.5% year on year. Median rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm rose just 0.4%. The latest acceleration is therefore stronger than the medium-term market; the data does not show a renewed citywide rent surge.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jul 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
The increase spread across mainstream unit sizes
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | Median rent | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 5,089 | +19.9% | AED 70,240 | -0.7% | -4.4% | High |
| 2BR | 3,097 | +20.2% | AED 110,378 | +0.1% | -2.4% | High |
| 3BR | 737 | +30.7% | AED 170,584 | -2.5% | -10.1% | High |
| 4BR | 43 | +7.5% | AED 275,944 | -12.2% | -30.2% | Low |
Three-bedroom homes recorded the fastest turnover growth, but also the clearest annual rate correction. The 4BR move is too thin and mix-sensitive to carry much weight.
Named corridors: turnover rose where pricing softened
| Area, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 1,366 | +34.7% | -2.0% | -9.0% | High |
| Business Bay | 871 | +26.2% | -3.9% | -8.5% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 803 | +23.2% | -3.8% | -13.0% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 494 | +25.4% | -1.8% | -13.5% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 426 | +25.7% | -5.2% | -5.9% | High |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 323 | +10.6% | +0.5% | -6.5% | High |
| JLT | 358 | +12.2% | -3.7% | -8.8% | High |
| Dubai South | 240 | +17.6% | -5.5% | -10.1% | High |
JVC, Business Bay, Dubai Marina and Downtown all cleared materially more leases at lower rates per square metre. Dubai Creek Harbour was the short-window exception, although it remained below last year's rate. Annual volume fell in Deira (-35.8%), Dubai South (-42.0%) and Town Square (-13.9%), while JVC and Downtown gained 25.3% and 30.3% respectively.
Live supply leaves tenants room to negotiate
| Apartment | Live median ask, 2026-08-08 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-07-26 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 84,995 | 49,154 | AED 70,240 | +21.0% |
| 2BR | AED 140,000 | 35,040 | AED 110,378 | +26.8% |
| 3BR | AED 240,000 | 10,565 | AED 170,584 | +40.7% |
These are broad bedroom segments, not matched homes, so confidence in the exact gaps is moderate. Confidence that asking exceeds settled pricing is high. Inventory is deep and the premium widens with size.
The live whole-market asking series held near AED 115,000–119,000 on full-coverage days from late July through 2026-08-06; median asking AED/sq ft drifted from about 111 to 109. The lower 2026-08-08 headline came from a much smaller daily corpus, so it is not evidence of a sudden market drop. July Ejari registrations were 47.6% new contracts and 52.4% renewals, versus a 50.5% new-contract share a year earlier.
This is broader than a four-week move
Citywide average rent fell from AED 1,135/sqm in Q4 2025 to AED 1,115 in Q1 2026 and AED 1,005 in Q2; partial Q3 through 2026-07-26 is AED 990. Dubai Marina, Business Bay, Downtown and JVC also moved lower from Q1 to Q2 and remained soft in the latest settled window. The direction is broad and multi-quarter, not a one-month blip.
Rental view: price renewals and new listings from settled comparables. Above-market asks face abundant substitutes, especially for 2BR and 3BR apartments.
Secondary
Turnover eased; unit pricing held
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-26 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 10,458 | -3.3% | -28.3% |
| Median sale price | AED 1.10m | -1.9% | -15.5% |
| Average AED/sqm | AED 19,201 | -1.0% | -4.9% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,286 | +0.3% | +1.4% |
| Registered value | AED 17.24bn | -3.5% | -40.2% |
The short-window move was a modest loss of deal flow, not a broad collapse in comparable pricing. Confidence is high at 10,458 sales. The year-on-year ticket decline partly reflects smaller homes: average size fell from 94 sqm to 84 sqm.
Year to 2026-07-26, 82,960 sales cleared, down 10.0% year on year. Median sale price fell 1.4%, but median AED/sqm rose 5.4%; registered value declined 11.5%. Buyers are still paying more for each square metre than last year, while fewer and smaller transactions are clearing.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jul 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Apartments weakened more than villas
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | Volume vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 9,797 | -3.5% | -29.2% | +0.4% | +1.2% | High |
| Villas | 661 | 0.0% | -12.5% | -5.7% | +1.3% | High |
Apartments account for almost all of the citywide volume loss. Villa deal count held against the prior window, but the lower AED/sqm and larger average home point to a mix shift rather than fresh pricing strength.
Activity rotated sharply between locations
| Area, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 2,196 | -17.1% | +1.5% | +0.8% | High |
| JVC | 691 | +6.3% | -2.7% | +6.3% | High |
| City of Arabia | 359 | +73.4% | +3.4% | n/a | High short-window |
| Dubai Production City | 248 | +47.6% | +3.2% | -6.2% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 224 | +37.4% | +2.9% | -9.2% | High |
| Business Bay | 256 | -16.6% | -6.7% | -13.5% | High |
| Meydan | 249 | +7.3% | -15.7% | n/a | High short-window |
| Arjan | 202 | -40.6% | -3.4% | +6.5% | High |
City of Arabia and Dubai Production City led short-window volume gains. Arjan, JVT (-33.6%) and DIP (-26.5%) were the clearest liquid losers. Year on year, JVC and Arjan retained higher AED/sqm despite much lower deal counts; Business Bay and Dubai Marina weakened on both comparable pricing and turnover. Dubai South's deal count rose 268% year on year while average home size fell sharply, making its stable AED/sqm the more useful signal than its 44% lower median ticket.
Live asks remain ahead of settled sales
| Apartment | Live median ask, 2026-08-08 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-07-26 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 1.35m | 35,849 | AED 1.19m | +13.1% |
| 2BR | AED 2.54m | 27,486 | AED 2.07m | +23.2% |
| 3BR | AED 4.65m | 9,953 | AED 3.60m | +29.3% |
The comparisons are broad rather than matched-unit appraisals, giving moderate confidence on the exact premiums. The direction is high confidence: sellers are asking more than the settled market is clearing, and the gap grows with unit size.
On full-coverage days, the whole-market live asking median stayed near AED 2.15m–2.20m through early August while median asking AED/sq ft eased from roughly 1,816 to 1,806. No fresh asking-price breakout is visible.
The market is below its Q1 peak
Citywide average sale pricing rose through 2025 to AED 21,132/sqm in Q1 2026, then fell to AED 20,135 in Q2 and AED 19,183 in partial Q3 through 2026-07-26. The latest area readings are uneven, but weakness in Business Bay, Meydan, Arjan and JVT makes the cooling broader than one headline corridor. Partial Q3 is directional, not a completed quarter.
Yield remains strongest in mid-market corridors
| Indicative 1BR area yield | Gross yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| International City | 8.2% | Moderate |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 6.7% | Moderate |
| Dubai Production City | 6.6% | Moderate |
| Town Square | 6.5% | Moderate |
| Dubai Sports City | 6.3% | Moderate |
| JVC | 6.2% | Moderate |
| Arjan | 5.9% | Moderate |
| Downtown Dubai | 5.1% | Moderate |
| Dubai Marina | 5.0% | Moderate |
| Business Bay | 4.2% | Moderate |
Mid-market corridors lead indicative 1BR yields
International City leads this liquid-area set. These are area-level gross benchmarks for locally typical 1BR sizes, not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs reduce realised yield.
Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent AED/sqm evidence, particularly on larger apartments. Sellers have not lost comparable pricing citywide, but live supply and the asking gap leave little support for ambitious premiums.
Method and caveats
- Transacted figures use DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-07-26. Rentals cover new contracts and use the standard rent outlier filter; sales are secondary transactions.
- Live asking figures use the full-market listings corpus dated 2026-08-08. Asking-to-transacted comparisons are broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
- Citywide and listed-area pricing conclusions are generally high confidence because samples exceed 150 deals. Exact asking gaps and area-level yields are moderate confidence; the 4BR rent row is low confidence at 43 deals.
- Holiday timing affects the prior-period volume comparison. Pricing per square metre and year-to-date evidence carry more weight.
- Partial Q3 figures run only through 2026-07-26 and should be read as trajectory, not a completed quarter.