Rental demand rebounded without restoring last year's pricing. Secondary sales lost more volume, while live asking prices remain well above achieved deals in both markets.
Rentals
Turnover surged, but the annual price test remains negative
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-09-27 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent registrations | 20,554 | +43.8% | +14.0% |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -2.1% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 986 | +3.1% | -5.9% |
| Registered rent value | AED 2.50bn | +41.4% | +10.1% |
Demand cleared sharply faster, but pricing has only rebounded over the short window. Confidence is high, based on 20,554 filtered DLD registrations. Average home size fell from 126 sqm to 122 sqm versus the prior period, while median AED/sqm rose. The rate gain is therefore not explained by larger homes.
Year to 2026-09-27, 134,216 registrations cleared, up 5.9% year on year. Median annual rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm was 1.4% lower. The latest four-week acceleration is stronger than the medium-horizon market.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Sep 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
One- and two-bedroom homes carried the rebound
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 7,740 | +54.7% | +21.9% | +2.9% | -7.1% | High |
| 2BR | 4,293 | +45.0% | +16.2% | +2.1% | -4.9% | High |
| 3BR | 945 | +19.6% | +20.5% | +0.9% | -8.0% | High |
| 4BR | 77 | +22.2% | +40.0% | -8.2% | -1.4% | Low; mix-sensitive |
The rebound was led by 1BR and 2BR registrations. Every clean bedroom group remained below last year's median AED/sqm. Studio registrations cannot be isolated defensibly from the DLD room coding in this cut; the data does not support a clean studio comparison.
Core corridors gained volume; annual pricing remained broadly weaker
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah | 323 | +87.8% | -1.1% | +28.2% | -13.7% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Meydan | 414 | +79.2% | +3.2% | -19.0% | -14.5% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Business Bay | 1,494 | +66.7% | 0.0% | +29.4% | -7.0% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 1,412 | +64.4% | +3.1% | +37.1% | -10.5% | High |
| JVC | 1,932 | +52.2% | +2.9% | +2.3% | -13.1% | High |
| Arjan | 299 | +47.3% | +5.0% | +20.1% | -2.0% | High |
| Al Jaddaf | 381 | +27.0% | -4.9% | +3.8% | -12.1% | High |
Palm Jumeirah recorded the largest volume gain, but not a rate gain. Dubai Marina and JVC combined materially higher turnover with firmer short-window pricing. Arjan had the clearest balanced move: registrations rose 47.3% and median AED/sqm gained 5.0%.
The annual picture is weaker. Major apartment corridors including Downtown Dubai, Dubai Marina, Business Bay, JVC and Dubai Creek Harbour all registered lower median AED/sqm than a year ago. Deira was a limited exception: 347 deals, down 9.6%, with median AED/sqm up 3.6%.
Live supply still carries a sizeable asking premium
| Apartment | Live median ask | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-09-27 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 85,000 | 44,285 | AED 73,251 | +16.0% |
| 2BR | AED 144,999 | 33,537 | AED 115,395 | +25.7% |
| 3BR | AED 250,000 | 10,980 | AED 188,646 | +32.5% |
Live figures are dated 2026-10-10. Exact premiums carry moderate confidence because these are broad bedroom groups, not matched homes. Their direction is high confidence: negotiation room widens with apartment size.
Live inventory contains 88,802 1BR-to-3BR apartment listings. Registered Ejari demand also broadened: new leases represented 51.5% of September contracts, against 50.2% in August and 51.1% in September 2025. Contract counts are reliable; medians in the renewal series are mix-sensitive.
This is a rebound inside a broader correction
Citywide average achieved rent peaked at AED 1,140/sqm in 2025-Q4, fell to AED 1,011 in 2026-Q2 and stands at AED 1,032 in Q3 through 2026-09-27. The latest four weeks strengthened, but annual pricing remained negative across most major corridors. The data shows a rebound, not yet a multi-quarter uptrend.
Rental view: landlords have stronger short-window demand evidence, especially for 1BR and 2BR homes. Tenants retain leverage where asking premiums exceed 20%, particularly in larger apartments.
Secondary
Liquidity weakened again; a larger mix lifted the ticket, not unit pricing
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-09-27 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 8,988 | -6.9% | -43.5% |
| Median sale value | AED 1.23m | +6.2% | -6.3% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 17,904 | -2.0% | -2.5% |
| Registered value | AED 15.86bn | -5.3% | -48.7% |
| Average home size | 90 sqm | +3.4% | -2.2% |
The median ticket rose because larger homes traded; achieved unit pricing fell. Confidence is high, based on 8,988 DLD registrations. Against last year, both liquidity and pricing were weaker.
Year to 2026-09-27, 105,028 sales cleared, down 17.9% year on year. Median value fell 4.2%, while median AED/sqm rose 3.2%. The medium-horizon market still shows higher unit pricing on fewer deals. That pricing growth is absent from the latest settled window.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Sep 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Villas resisted the apartment slowdown
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 8,308 | -7.7% | -45.1% | -2.1% | -3.3% | High |
| Villas | 680 | +4.3% | -14.2% | +1.7% | +8.6% | High; mix-sensitive |
Apartments made up 92% of registrations and drove the decline. Villas gained modest volume and unit pricing from the prior period, and remained above last year's median AED/sqm. Location and size mix still matter, so this indicates relative resilience rather than uniform villa appreciation.
Development-led gains sat beside broad corridor weakness
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 451 | +112.7% | -1.6% | n/a | n/a | High current sample; development-led |
| Motor City | 332 | +107.5% | +8.7% | -35.3% | -4.6% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 361 | +78.7% | +2.6% | +0.3% | +0.4% | High |
| JVC | 723 | +9.4% | -3.2% | -59.9% | -9.8% | High |
| Dubai South | 834 | -55.2% | -3.6% | -2.1% | +20.0% | High; development-led |
| Dubai Land | 324 | -8.7% | -7.2% | -58.2% | -6.5% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 183 | -7.6% | -7.3% | -39.6% | -7.2% | High |
Motor City and Dubai Creek Harbour were the clearest short-window gainers. Wadi Al Safa 3 more than doubled registrations without gaining median AED/sqm. Dubai South remained well above last year's unit pricing, but lost more than half its prior-period volume.
Established apartment markets were weaker. JVC gained modest short-window volume while unit pricing fell; Dubai Marina lost both. Business Bay recorded 288 deals, virtually flat from the prior period, but median AED/sqm fell 5.2% and volume remained 75.2% below last year.
Seller expectations still lead achieved prices
| Apartment | Live median ask | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-09-27 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 1.40m | 43,562 | AED 1.22m | +14.5% |
| 2BR | AED 2.60m | 33,627 | AED 2.10m | +23.9% |
| 3BR | AED 4.75m | 12,623 | AED 3.63m | +30.8% |
Live figures are dated 2026-10-10. Exact premiums carry moderate confidence because listings and transactions are not matched unit for unit. The direction is high confidence: sellers are asking materially more than buyers are paying, especially for larger apartments.
Cooling is now a multi-quarter pattern
Citywide average secondary pricing peaked at AED 21,165/sqm in 2026-Q1, fell to AED 20,146 in Q2 and stands at AED 19,196 in Q3 through 2026-09-27. Deal volume moved from 40,642 in Q1 to 33,306 in Q2 and 31,080 in Q3. The latest decline extends the broader cooling trend.
Value corridors retain the strongest indicative yields
| Typical 1BR area benchmark | Gross yield | Rent sample | Ready-resale sample | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 7.8% | 6,246 | 1,360 | High; area level |
| Dubai South | 7.8% | 3,111 | 623 | High; area level |
| Dubai Production City | 7.5% | 2,799 | 732 | High; area level |
| JVC | 6.9% | 16,184 | 4,607 | High; area level |
| Business Bay | 5.8% | 6,318 | 1,721 | High; area level |
| Dubai Marina | 5.1% | 9,360 | 2,678 | High; area level |
Yield Comparison
These are gross area benchmarks using each area's typical 1BR size and ready-resale pricing. They are not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs reduce realised yield.
Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent ready-resale AED/sqm comparables, not headline asking prices. Sellers face a liquidity test: asking premiums above 20% for larger apartments sit beside two consecutive quarters of weaker deal flow.
Method and caveats
- Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-09-27. Rental figures use the standard outlier filter; sale figures cover secondary registrations. The newest fortnight was excluded because registrations remain incomplete.
- Live figures use the full-market listings corpus dated 2026-10-10. Asking-to-transacted comparisons are broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
- Citywide and principal-area findings are high confidence, generally based on more than 100 transactions. Exact asking gaps are moderate confidence because listing and transaction mixes differ. The 4BR rental result is low confidence at 77 registrations.
- No Eid holiday falls within the latest, prior or year-ago four-week windows; no Eid adjustment was required.
- Q3 trajectory runs through 2026-09-27. Yield estimates are gross, area-level and indicative; sale inputs are ready resale, not off-plan.