Rental turnover rose without pricing power, while secondary sales held volume on smaller tickets
In the 4 weeks to 2026-08-16, rent registrations increased 9.2% and secondary deals 1.2% from the prior period; neither market produced broad price growth.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageMore rental contracts cleared at flat rates, while secondary volume held as buyers moved toward smaller homes. Live asking premiums leave tenants and buyers room to negotiate.
Rentals
More contracts cleared, but achieved pricing was flat
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-08-16 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent registrations | 16,098 | +9.2% | +6.2% |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -2.3% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 937 | +0.9% | -5.0% |
| Registered rent value | AED 1.92bn | +7.5% | +2.7% |
Turnover improved without renewed landlord pricing power. Confidence is high, based on 16,098 filtered DLD registrations. The latest median rent was unchanged from the prior four weeks, while the cleaner size-adjusted measure remained 5.0% below last year.
Year to 2026-08-16, 105,212 registrations cleared, up 2.7% year on year. Median annual rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm was down 0.4%. The latest annual weakness is therefore sharper than the year-to-date result.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Aug 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
One- and three-bedroom homes led the volume gain
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 5,623 | +11.0% | +10.5% | 0.0% | -5.6% | High |
| 2BR | 3,239 | +4.3% | +6.2% | +0.2% | -4.2% | High |
| 3BR | 806 | +11.3% | +13.4% | +3.1% | -7.8% | High |
| 4BR | 49 | +14.0% | +16.7% | -3.0% | -8.7% | Low |
The liquid 1BR-to-3BR market recorded more contracts than both comparison periods. Yet all three remained cheaper per square metre than a year ago. The 3BR short-window rise is real within 806 registrations, but it has not erased the annual decline. The 4BR result is too thin and mix-sensitive to generalise.
Dubai Sports City gained; JVT gave up pricing
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 1,498 | +15.4% | -0.9% | +3.2% | -11.9% | High |
| Business Bay | 953 | +7.4% | +2.4% | +24.7% | -6.3% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 872 | +4.4% | +2.0% | +18.0% | -9.9% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 492 | +23.6% | -1.2% | +60.8% | -11.1% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 418 | +25.1% | -3.8% | +10.3% | -8.4% | High |
| JLT | 423 | +23.0% | +1.3% | +5.2% | -7.8% | High |
| Dubai Sports City | 335 | +35.1% | +11.7% | +14.3% | +0.7% | High, mix-sensitive |
| JVT | 362 | +15.3% | -9.5% | -11.5% | -0.2% | High |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 319 | -6.2% | -0.8% | -3.3% | -3.2% | High |
| Town Square | 238 | -12.2% | +1.7% | -23.0% | -4.1% | High |
Dubai Sports City was the strongest liquid short-window move on both activity and price per square metre. JVT added registrations but at materially lower rates. Town Square and Dubai Silicon Oasis lost volume. Across the main apartment corridors, year-on-year pricing remained broadly negative.
Live supply is priced above what tenants recently accepted
| Apartment | Live median ask, 2026-08-29 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-08-16 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 84,999 | 45,848 | AED 70,240 | +21.0% |
| 2BR | AED 140,000 | 32,913 | AED 110,378 | +26.8% |
| 3BR | AED 240,000 | 10,099 | AED 175,601 | +36.7% |
The groups are broad rather than matched homes, so the exact gaps carry moderate confidence. Their direction is high confidence: asking premiums widen with size, leaving the most negotiation room in larger apartments.
Live whole-market asking rent was AED 119,999 on 2026-08-29 across 134,968 listings. Median asking rent per sq ft eased from AED 110.8 on 2026-07-19 to AED 108.8. Supply is not signalling renewed pricing power. In July, new contracts represented 47.6% of registered Ejari contracts, down from 50.5% a year earlier; renewals again carried the larger share.
The decline extends beyond four weeks
Citywide average rent per sqm peaked at AED 1,140 in 2025-Q4, fell to AED 1,011 in 2026-Q2 and stands at AED 1,012 in partial Q3. Dubai Marina fell 15.9% in Q2 and another 6.6% in partial Q3; Business Bay fell 14.2% then 4.5%; JVC fell 12.1% then 1.2%; Dubai South fell 6.8% then 2.0%. Partial Q3 is incomplete, but four distinct corridors point in the same direction.
Rental view: landlords should price from recent registrations, not portal expectations. Tenants retain the strongest leverage in 2BR and 3BR apartments.
Secondary
Deal flow held, but the market shifted toward smaller tickets
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-08-16 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 10,659 | +1.2% | -30.6% |
| Median sale value | AED 1.08m | -2.6% | -17.7% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,253 | +0.2% | -0.2% |
| Registered value | AED 17.59bn | -1.0% | -42.2% |
| Average home size | 82 sqm | -5.7% | -12.8% |
The four-week market was stable per square metre, not stronger. Confidence is high, based on 10,659 DLD registrations. A smaller average home explains much of the fall in ticket values. Against last year, unit pricing was almost flat while deal count and registered value were materially lower.
Year to 2026-08-16, 91,401 sales cleared, down 12.2% year on year. Median sale value fell 3.4%, but median AED/sqm rose 4.6%. The medium-term market still shows higher unit pricing on fewer, smaller deals; the latest four weeks have lost that price growth.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Aug 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Apartments held volume; villas weakened
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 9,979 | +2.1% | -31.9% | +0.7% | -5.3% | High |
| Villas | 680 | -9.8% | -2.3% | -0.4% | +3.9% | High |
Apartments supplied all short-window growth, although their median ticket fell 3.8%. Villas lost volume and average ticket size, while annual price per square metre remained firmer. This was a mix shift toward smaller apartments rather than broad appreciation.
Jabal Ali and Meydan gained; Dubai South and JVT lost momentum
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 1,635 | -30.2% | -0.1% | +153.9% | +13.2% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Jabal Ali Industrial Second | 1,017 | +169.8% | +1.4% | n/a | n/a | High, development-led |
| JVC | 759 | +7.2% | -3.7% | -55.6% | -0.7% | High |
| Wadi Al Safa 4 | 530 | +127.5% | +0.4% | -21.0% | -13.1% | High, development-led |
| Meydan | 304 | +53.5% | +13.3% | n/a | n/a | High, mix-sensitive |
| DIP | 313 | +31.5% | +3.4% | -67.1% | -20.9% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Business Bay | 271 | +2.3% | +4.7% | -78.6% | -7.8% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Dubai Marina | 218 | +1.9% | +4.1% | -42.5% | -4.1% | High |
| JVT | 185 | -26.6% | -1.0% | -55.6% | +8.3% | High |
| Dubai Sports City | 143 | -36.4% | -1.6% | -46.2% | +0.9% | High |
Jabal Ali Industrial Second and Wadi Al Safa 4 drove the volume expansion, but both are heavily influenced by project release and unit mix. Meydan was the clearest price-and-volume gainer among liquid areas. Dubai South, JVT and Dubai Sports City lost short-window liquidity. The annual comparison remains weak across established corridors including JVC, Business Bay and Dubai Marina.
Seller expectations remain ahead of settled deals
| Apartment | Live median ask, 2026-08-29 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-08-16 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 1.35m | 40,378 | AED 1.18m | +14.4% |
| 2BR | AED 2.55m | 30,591 | AED 2.00m | +27.7% |
| 3BR | AED 4.60m | 11,345 | AED 3.50m | +31.4% |
These are broad bedroom groups rather than matched units, so exact premiums carry moderate confidence. The negotiation signal is high confidence, especially above one bedroom.
The live corpus shows ample stock, while achieved deal volume remains below last year. Daily whole-market asking data were unstable on 2026-08-29 because the captured sample fell sharply; bedroom-level figures above use the full live corpus and are the sounder supply measure.
Cooling is now a multi-quarter pattern
Citywide average sale pricing peaked at AED 21,164/sqm in 2026-Q1, fell to AED 20,148 in Q2 and stands at AED 19,209 in partial Q3. Dubai Marina fell 8.2% in Q2 and 4.1% in partial Q3; Business Bay fell 12.4% then 2.4%; JVC rose 2.8% in Q2 but reversed 7.4% in partial Q3. Dubai South is the exception, rising 7.3% and another 2.3%. Weakness across three major apartment corridors makes this more than a four-week blip.
Value corridors retain the strongest indicative yields
| Indicative 75 sqm area yield | Gross yield | Rent sample | Ready-resale sample | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 8.1% | 2,304 | 405 | High at area level |
| Dubai Sports City | 8.1% | 4,021 | 1,232 | High at area level |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 7.9% | 6,282 | 1,374 | High at area level |
| Arjan | 7.6% | 495 | 154 | Moderate |
| JVC | 6.6% | 16,188 | 4,858 | High at area level |
Yield Comparison
These are area-level gross benchmarks for a 75 sqm apartment, with sale values restricted to ready resale. They are not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs reduce realised yield.
Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent AED/sqm comparables, particularly for 2BR and 3BR apartments. Sellers have medium-term support from higher year-to-date unit pricing, but present liquidity rewards realistic ticket expectations.
Method and caveats
- Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-08-16. Rental figures use the standard outlier filter; sale figures cover the secondary market. The latest fortnight was excluded because registrations are incomplete.
- Live figures use the full-market listings corpus dated 2026-08-29. Asking-to-transacted comparisons are broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
- Citywide and principal area pricing findings are high confidence, generally based on more than 100 deals. Exact asking gaps are moderate confidence because listing and transaction mixes differ. The 4BR rental result is low confidence at 49 registrations.
- No major Eid holiday falls inside the latest, prior, or year-ago four-week comparison windows; no holiday adjustment was applied.
- Partial 2026-Q3 trajectory runs through August and is not a completed quarter. Yield estimates are gross, area-level and indicative.