Dubai pricing steadied in the latest settled four weeks, but fewer deals cleared. Annual rental rates remain softer, secondary liquidity is sharply lower, and live asking prices leave room to negotiate.
Rentals
Fewer leases cleared at slightly firmer rates
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-08-30 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent registrations | 14,011 | -8.6% | +9.9% |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -3.4% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 953 | +2.1% | -5.9% |
| Registered rent value | AED 1.73bn | -6.0% | +11.0% |
The latest rate increase came with weaker turnover, not stronger demand. Confidence is high, based on 14,011 filtered DLD registrations. Compared with the same four weeks last year, more leases cleared but at lower rates per square metre.
Year to 2026-08-30, 112,705 registrations cleared, up 3.7% year on year. Median annual rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm was 0.6% lower. The latest annual decline is therefore materially weaker than the year-to-date picture.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Aug 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Larger apartments led the short-window increase
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 4,895 | -7.6% | +13.1% | +1.5% | -6.5% | High |
| 2BR | 2,915 | -7.3% | +11.9% | +3.1% | -4.4% | High |
| 3BR | 776 | +4.2% | +29.3% | +7.4% | -5.5% | High |
| 4BR | 60 | +36.4% | +93.6% | +20.8% | +8.9% | Low; mix-sensitive |
Three-bedroom homes produced the clearest liquid short-window gain, but remained cheaper per square metre than a year ago. The 4BR move is too thin to generalise. Studio registrations cannot be isolated reliably from the room coding in this cut; the data does not support a defensible studio comparison.
Downtown gained while JVT traded price for volume
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 1,236 | -13.4% | +1.6% | -0.3% | -12.2% | High |
| Business Bay | 876 | -5.8% | +2.7% | +15.0% | -6.8% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 845 | +5.6% | +2.5% | +23.2% | -12.2% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 586 | +15.8% | +4.5% | +32.6% | -10.7% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 501 | +13.3% | +3.5% | +66.4% | -7.8% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 417 | +10.3% | +1.0% | +22.6% | -7.7% | High |
| JLT | 366 | -6.9% | +4.4% | +9.9% | -7.7% | High |
| JVT | 364 | +24.7% | -5.8% | +9.3% | -9.7% | High |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 270 | -21.3% | +0.4% | -4.3% | -2.0% | High |
| Deira | 238 | -34.8% | -2.9% | n/a | n/a | High current sample |
Downtown Dubai combined rising turnover with firmer achieved rates. JVT cleared substantially more contracts only after rates fell. Dubai Silicon Oasis and Deira recorded the clearest volume losses. Annual AED/sqm remained negative across every comparable major corridor shown.
Live supply still sits above achieved rents
| Apartment | Live median ask | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-08-30 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 84,990 | 50,991 | AED 70,559 | +20.5% |
| 2BR | AED 140,000 | 36,974 | AED 110,500 | +26.7% |
| 3BR | AED 240,000 | 11,717 | AED 180,618 | +32.9% |
Live figures are dated 2026-09-12. The comparisons are broad bedroom groups rather than matched homes, so exact gaps carry moderate confidence. Their direction is high confidence: asking premiums widen with size, leaving the most negotiation room in larger apartments.
Among registered Ejari contracts, new leases represented 50.2% in August, up from 47.6% in July but below 51.2% in August 2025. New and renewal demand remain almost evenly split. Median contract values in that series are mix-sensitive.
The weakness remains a multi-quarter pattern
Citywide average rent per sqm peaked at AED 1,140 in 2025-Q4, fell to AED 1,011 in 2026-Q2 and stands at AED 1,014 in partial Q3. Dubai Marina fell 16.3% in Q2 and another 5.6% in partial Q3; Business Bay fell 14.1% then 3.5%; JVC fell 12.2% then 0.4%; Dubai South fell 6.7% then 2.2%. The latest four-week lift has not broken the broader decline.
Rental view: landlords should anchor renewals and new leases to recent registrations, not portal expectations. Tenants retain leverage, especially in 2BR and 3BR apartments.
Secondary
Volume fell again; the higher ticket was mostly mix
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-08-30 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 9,657 | -11.5% | -38.3% |
| Median sale value | AED 1.16m | +9.5% | -14.4% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,278 | +0.2% | -2.9% |
| Registered value | AED 16.75bn | -5.5% | -45.0% |
| Average home size | 87 sqm | +6.1% | -4.4% |
The median ticket rose because the mix shifted to larger homes; unit pricing was effectively flat. Confidence is high, based on 9,657 DLD registrations. The annual comparison is weaker on every principal measure.
Year to 2026-08-30, 96,047 sales cleared, down 14.2% year on year. Median value fell 4.2%, while median AED/sqm rose 3.8%. The medium-term market still carries higher unit pricing on fewer deals; the latest settled window no longer shows that annual price growth.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Aug 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Villas held up better than apartments
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 9,005 | -12.1% | -39.7% | -0.1% | -8.9% | High |
| Villas | 652 | -2.8% | -10.4% | +5.1% | +8.2% | High; mix-sensitive |
Apartments accounted for 93% of registrations and drove the slowdown. Villas were more resilient on both volume and unit pricing, although their average size shifted; this is relative strength, not proof of uniform villa appreciation.
Wadi Al Safa 4 gained volume; established corridors stayed soft
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 1,863 | -8.8% | +2.3% | +159.1% | +18.9% | High; development-led |
| JVC | 661 | -14.7% | +3.5% | -54.0% | -4.5% | High |
| Wadi Al Safa 4 | 496 | +89.3% | 0.0% | +49.8% | -12.3% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Jabal Ali Industrial Second | 491 | -49.3% | -0.1% | n/a | n/a | High; development-led |
| Dubai Land | 398 | -12.1% | -2.5% | -44.9% | -3.6% | High |
| Business Bay | 287 | +13.0% | +4.4% | -81.1% | -12.3% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Dubai Production City | 203 | -7.7% | -4.9% | -64.9% | -17.9% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 198 | -10.8% | -4.9% | -41.2% | -9.2% | High |
| JVT | 191 | 0.0% | +2.4% | -48.4% | +9.2% | High |
| DIP | 190 | -37.3% | +7.5% | -77.7% | -18.7% | High; mix-sensitive |
Wadi Al Safa 4 was the clearest volume gainer, but flat short-window AED/sqm shows the higher median ticket came from mix. Business Bay improved against the prior period yet remained far below last year's activity. Dubai Marina and Dubai Production City lost both turnover and unit pricing.
Seller expectations still lead achieved prices
| Apartment | Live median ask | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-08-30 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 1.37m | 43,146 | AED 1.20m | +14.1% |
| 2BR | AED 2.58m | 32,812 | AED 2.04m | +26.3% |
| 3BR | AED 4.67m | 12,220 | AED 3.60m | +29.7% |
Live figures are dated 2026-09-12. These are broad bedroom groups rather than matched units, so exact premiums carry moderate confidence. The direction is high confidence: ample live supply remains priced above what is clearing, particularly in 2BR and 3BR apartments.
Cooling extends beyond one four-week window
Citywide average sale pricing peaked at AED 21,164/sqm in 2026-Q1, fell to AED 20,148 in Q2 and stands at AED 19,209 in partial Q3. Dubai Marina fell 8.2% in Q2 and 4.6% in partial Q3; Business Bay fell 12.4% then 3.1%; JVC rose 2.8% in Q2 but reversed 6.9% in partial Q3. Dubai South is the exception, rising 7.3% and another 2.0%. Weakness across three established apartment corridors makes the cooling broader than a short-window blip.
Value corridors offer the strongest indicative yields
| Indicative 75 sqm area yield | Gross yield | Rent sample | Ready-resale sample | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International City | 9.7% | 11,930 | 1,898 | High; area level |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 8.0% | 6,248 | 1,361 | High; area level |
| JVC | 6.8% | 16,429 | 4,879 | High; area level |
| Business Bay | 5.7% | 6,019 | 1,703 | High; area level |
| Dubai Marina | 5.0% | 9,325 | 2,737 | High; area level |
These are gross area benchmarks for a 75 sqm apartment, with sale values restricted to ready resale. They are not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs reduce realised yield.
Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent ready-resale AED/sqm comparables. Sellers face a liquid-market test: asking premiums above 25% for larger apartments sit awkwardly beside falling deal volume.
Method and caveats
- Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-08-30. Rental figures use the standard outlier filter; sale figures cover secondary registrations. The newest fortnight was excluded because registrations remain incomplete.
- Live figures use the full-market listings corpus dated 2026-09-12. Asking-to-transacted comparisons are broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
- Citywide and principal area pricing findings are high confidence, generally based on more than 100 transactions. Exact asking gaps are moderate confidence because listing and transaction mixes differ. The 4BR rental result is low confidence at 60 registrations.
- No major Eid holiday falls within the latest, prior, or year-ago four-week windows; no holiday adjustment was required.
- Partial 2026-Q3 trajectory runs through 2026-08-30 and is not a completed quarter. Yield estimates are gross, area-level and indicative.