Rental registrations rose while prices softened, and secondary sales recovered on thinner pricing
In the 4 weeks to 2026-07-19, rent deals rose 22% and secondary deals 24% from the prior four weeks, but AED/sqm was flat for rent and down 2% for sales.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageDeal flow recovered in the 4 weeks to 2026-07-19, but pricing did not follow. Live asking prices remain above settled deals, leaving tenants and buyers room to negotiate.
Rentals
The citywide move
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-19 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| New rent registrations | 14,168 | +22.3% | +15.2% |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| Average AED/sqm | AED 996 | 0.0% | -3.9% |
| Registered rent value | AED 1.70bn | +21.1% | +10.2% |
More leases cleared, but the price signal was flat to softer. This is high confidence: 14,168 filtered new-rent registrations. The latest four weeks compare with a prior window containing Eid Al Adha and a year-ago window containing the Islamic New Year holiday. Both volume comparisons are therefore directionally useful, not clean calendar effects.
Year to 2026-07-19, registrations reached 87,094, up 1.1% year on year. Median rent was unchanged at AED 85,292 and average AED/sqm rose only 0.4%. The short-window increase in activity is stronger than the year-to-date market; the data does not show a renewed citywide rent surge.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jul 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Bedrooms and corridors
| Segment, transacted | Deals | vs prior 4 weeks | Median rent | AED/sqm move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 4,855 | +24.9% | AED 70,240 | -0.2% |
| 2BR | 2,978 | +23.3% | AED 110,378 | +0.6% |
| 3BR | 695 | +40.4% | AED 170,584 | -1.3% |
| 4BR | 40 | +14.3% | AED 275,944 | -8.3% |
The increase was broad across 1BR to 3BR homes. Three-bedroom volume rose fastest, but its median fell 5.6% from the prior four weeks and 15.0% year on year. Four-bedroom pricing is low confidence because only 40 deals cleared; the other rows are high confidence.
| Area, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Bay | 856 | +42.7% | -3.3% | -7.9% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 802 | +39.0% | -3.5% | -11.0% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 481 | +35.5% | -0.2% | -12.8% | High |
| JVC | 1,263 | +30.3% | -2.0% | -8.8% | High |
| Arjan | 269 | +44.6% | -2.6% | -5.6% | High |
| JVT | 304 | +19.7% | +2.4% | +3.2% | High |
| Dubai South | 235 | +25.0% | -4.5% | -10.2% | High |
| Al Badaa | 162 | -19.8% | -5.7% | n/a | Moderate |
The strongest pattern was higher turnover at lower rent per square metre. Marina, Downtown, Business Bay and JVC all recorded materially more deals while AED/sqm declined. JVT was the clearest large-sample exception. Year-on-year volume losers included Dubai South (-41.1%), Deira (-37.3%) and JLT (-3.2%); the first two also had lower AED/sqm.
Live supply and negotiation room
| Unit | Live median ask, 2026-08-01 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-07-19 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio | AED 50,000 | 20,264 | n/a | n/a |
| 1BR | AED 84,999 | 46,820 | AED 70,240 | +21.0% |
| 2BR | AED 140,000 | 33,243 | AED 110,378 | +26.8% |
| 3BR | AED 240,000 | 9,941 | AED 170,584 | +40.7% |
Live supply is deep, especially in 1BR and 2BR units. Asking medians are not like-for-like matched homes, but the gap widens with unit size and is too large to ignore. It is the clearest measure of negotiation room: landlords are advertising well above what the settled market is recording.
The live whole-market asking median moved between AED 115,000 and AED 119,000 from 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-31 across roughly 132,000–138,000 daily listings. It did not break upward. Ejari data tells the same demand story: new contracts were 47.6% of July registrations, below 50.5% a year earlier; renewals remained the larger channel.
Trajectory
Average transacted AED/sqm fell from Q1 2026 to Q2 in Dubai Marina (-15.6%), Business Bay (-14.0%), JVC (-12.1%) and Downtown Dubai (-13.7%). The partial Q3 readings through 2026-07-19 were lower again in all four. These are large samples, but quarterly averages remain mix-sensitive. The breadth and two-quarter persistence make the cooling pattern more credible than a one-month blip.
Rental view: landlords should price against settled comparables, not the live ask. Tenants have leverage where a property sits above the current transacted band, particularly for larger apartments.
Secondary
The citywide move
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-19 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 10,504 | +23.6% | -23.6% |
| Median sale price | AED 1.11m | +0.5% | -16.5% |
| Average AED/sqm | AED 19,118 | -2.0% | -4.7% |
| Registered value | AED 17.70bn | +30.0% | -34.8% |
Sales activity rebounded from the prior four weeks, but buyers did not chase price per square metre. Confidence is high at 10,504 deals. As with rentals, holiday timing affects both volume comparisons: the prior period contained Eid Al Adha, while the year-ago match contained the Islamic New Year holiday.
The year-to-date picture is weaker on volume but firmer on unit pricing. Through 2026-07-19, 80,352 sales cleared, down 8.9% year on year; median AED/sqm rose 5.6%, while total value fell 9.9%. The latest four weeks therefore mark a short-term volume recovery inside a softer year for turnover.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jul 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Apartments, villas and locations
| Segment, transacted | Deals | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 9,750 | +20.7% | -24.8% | -0.3% | High |
| Villas | 754 | +79.1% | -3.6% | -3.5% | High |
Villas drove the short-window acceleration, nearly doubling from the Eid-affected prior period. Yet villa median AED/sqm fell 3.5%, while apartment pricing was almost unchanged. Compared with a year ago, apartment turnover remains the main weakness.
| Area, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 2,344 | +2.9% | +0.2% | -2.9% | High |
| JVC | 702 | +43.6% | -2.0% | +2.2% | High |
| Dubai Land | 461 | +45.0% | +4.7% | +2.4% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 214 | +86.1% | -1.8% | -11.0% | High |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 203 | +123.1% | -3.2% | +0.6% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 141 | +76.3% | +4.8% | +8.2% | High |
| Arjan | 198 | -32.9% | -6.6% | +6.9% | High |
| Dubai Islands | 140 | -15.7% | -10.5% | +5.7% | High |
Dubai South accounted for 22% of all sales in the window. Its median price fell 62.5% year on year while AED/sqm slipped only 2.9%, showing a decisive shift toward smaller, lower-ticket stock rather than a comparable-price collapse. Similar mix effects appear elsewhere; AED/sqm is the cleaner signal.
Year-on-year pricing leadership among established, defensible samples came from International City (+46.3% average AED/sqm, 161 deals), Meydan (+31.2%, 198), Al Jaddaf (+13.8%, 154), JVT (+11.3%, 253), Downtown (+8.2%, 141) and Arjan (+6.9%, 198). The largest declines were DIP (-24.9%, 238), Wadi Al Safa 4 (-12.5%, 233), Dubai Marina (-11.0%, 214) and Business Bay (-10.1%, 264). Mix changes are substantial in International City and Wadi Al Safa 4, so those magnitudes carry moderate rather than high confidence despite adequate counts.
Live supply and negotiation room
| Apartment | Live median ask, 2026-08-01 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-07-19 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 1.36m | 32,855 | AED 1.20m | +13.8% |
| 2BR | AED 2.55m | 25,063 | AED 2.07m | +23.1% |
| 3BR | AED 4.68m | 9,101 | AED 3.40m | +37.5% |
The live market offers abundant choice, but asks remain ahead of settled transactions. The premium again increases with size. These are broad segment comparisons rather than matched-unit appraisals, so confidence on the exact gap is moderate; confidence that asking exceeds transacted pricing is high.
The live whole-market asking median was AED 2.16m on 2026-07-31 across 104,615 listings. Daily corpus coverage varied sharply on some dates, so the clean conclusion is stability near AED 2.15m–AED 2.19m on full-coverage days, not a new upward break.
Trajectory
Citywide average AED/sqm rose through 2025, peaked at AED 21,131 in Q1 2026, then eased to AED 20,135 in Q2 and AED 19,115 in partial Q3. The same two-quarter decline appears in Dubai Marina, Business Bay and Downtown. JVC held up through Q2 before falling 8.8% in partial Q3. This is broader than a one-month move, though incomplete Q3 data should not be treated as a settled quarter.
Yield
| Indicative 1BR area yield | Market yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| International City | 8.7% | Moderate |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 6.8% | Moderate |
| Dubai Production City | 6.6% | Moderate |
| Town Square | 6.5% | Moderate |
| Dubai Sports City | 6.3% | Moderate |
| JVC | 6.2% | Moderate |
| Arjan | 5.5% | Moderate |
| Downtown Dubai | 5.4% | Moderate |
| Dubai Marina | 5.0% | Moderate |
| Business Bay | 4.2% | Moderate |
International City leads the selected liquid corridors on indicative gross yield. These are area-level benchmarks for locally typical 1BR sizes, not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs will reduce the realised yield.
Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent AED/sqm evidence. Sellers have regained deal flow, not pricing power. Yield investors should favour liquid mid-market corridors and verify the building-level rent, service charge and vacancy record before relying on an area headline.
Method and caveats
- Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-07-19. Rent figures cover new contracts and apply the standard rent outlier filter. Sale figures are secondary transactions.
- Live asking figures are from the full-market listing corpus dated 2026-08-01. Asking and transacted gaps compare broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
- Pricing confidence is high for citywide and most area rows because samples exceed 100 deals. Mix-sensitive outliers and area-level yield estimates are labelled moderate.
- Partial Q3 figures run only through 2026-07-19. They show direction, not a completed-quarter result.