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Weekly Market Monitor · ISO 2026-W39 · Dubai

Rental turnover accelerated at firmer short-term rates, while secondary sales kept losing liquidity

In the 4 weeks to 2026-09-13, rental registrations rose 8.5% and achieved AED/sqm 5.1%; secondary registrations fell 9.8% with unit pricing flat.

By Hazel's Research DeskPublished Coverage

Rentals strengthened over the latest settled four weeks but remain cheaper than last year. Secondary liquidity weakened again, while live asking prices still sit well above achieved deals.

Rentals

More leases cleared at firmer short-term rates

Transacted measure4 weeks to 2026-09-13vs prior 4 weeksvs year ago
Rent registrations18,059+8.5%+13.1%
Median annual rentAED 85,2920.0%-2.7%
Median AED/sqmAED 982+4.8%-4.8%
Registered rent valueAED 2.22bn+11.2%+12.2%

The short-window rental market strengthened on both turnover and achieved rate. Confidence is high, based on 18,059 filtered DLD registrations. The annual comparison remains softer: more leases cleared than a year ago, but at 4.8% less per square metre.

Year to 2026-09-13, 124,552 registrations cleared, up 5.2% year on year. Median annual rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm was 0.9% lower. The latest four-week rebound is stronger than the year-to-date picture, but has not repaired the annual rate decline.

Rental registrations and average rate by quarter

DLD registrations; 2026-Q3 through 13 September; standard rental outlier filter

Rental registrations recovered in partial Q3, while average AED per sqm remained below late-2025 levels

One- to three-bedroom apartments all strengthened

Segment, transactedDealsDeals vs priorDeals vs year agoAED/sqm vs priorAED/sqm vs year agoConfidence
1BR6,638+14.7%+19.6%+4.0%-6.7%High
2BR3,769+12.8%+14.7%+5.0%-4.6%High
3BR915+9.3%+31.3%+6.7%-3.3%High
4BR70+37.3%+45.8%+11.4%-3.7%Low; mix-sensitive

Three-bedroom homes recorded the strongest liquid short-window rate gain. Yet every reliable bedroom group remained below last year's average AED/sqm. Studio registrations cannot be isolated defensibly from the room coding in this cut; the data does not support a clean studio comparison.

Prime apartment corridors led the volume rebound

Area, transactedDealsDeals vs priorAED/sqm vs priorDeals vs year agoAED/sqm vs year agoConfidence
Downtown Dubai782+39.6%+2.7%+29.7%-12.4%High
Dubai Marina1,178+31.2%+3.3%+35.1%-14.4%High
Dubai Hills Estate667+32.1%+4.6%+69.3%-6.2%High; mix-sensitive
Business Bay1,243+26.6%+1.8%+26.1%-8.6%High
JVC1,717+10.8%+4.6%+6.6%-10.6%High
JLT465+6.9%+4.6%+7.6%-9.2%High
Al Nahda302-20.3%+4.7%-7.4%-0.9%High
Al Barsha302-26.7%-2.9%+5.2%-3.5%High; mix-sensitive
Deira292-14.6%+1.1%-17.5%+5.7%High

Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina combined sharply higher turnover with firmer short-window rates. Al Barsha was the clearest loser: fewer registrations and lower AED/sqm. The annual picture is more cautious. Every major apartment corridor shown except Deira remained below last year's achieved rate.

Live asking premiums widen with apartment size

ApartmentLive median askLive listingsTransacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-09-13Asking premium
1BRAED 84,99947,395AED 72,247+17.7%
2BRAED 143,00034,900AED 115,395+23.9%
3BRAED 249,99911,284AED 184,937+35.2%

Live figures are dated 2026-09-26. These are broad bedroom groups rather than matched homes, so exact gaps carry moderate confidence. Their direction is high confidence: supply remains priced above what tenants are signing, with the widest negotiation room in 3BR apartments.

The live apartment inventory totals 114,207 studios through 3BR homes. Among registered Ejari contracts, new leases represented 50.9% in September to date, up from 50.2% in August but close to 51.1% in September 2025. New and renewal demand are broadly balanced; contract medians in this series are mix-sensitive.

The rebound has not broken the broader correction

Citywide average rent per sqm peaked at AED 1,140 in 2025-Q4, fell to AED 1,011 in 2026-Q2 and stands at AED 1,025 in partial Q3 through 2026-09-13. Dubai Marina fell 16.0% in Q2 and another 4.8% in partial Q3; Business Bay fell 14.0% then 2.5%; JVC fell 12.2% then 0.1%; Dubai South fell 6.8% then 2.2%. The latest four-week gain is real, but it is still a rebound inside a multi-quarter decline.

Rental view: landlords have firmer near-term evidence, but last year's rates remain a poor anchor. Tenants still have leverage where asking premiums exceed 20%, particularly in 2BR and 3BR stock.

Secondary

Liquidity fell again; the larger median ticket was mix, not pricing power

Transacted measure4 weeks to 2026-09-13vs prior 4 weeksvs year ago
Secondary registrations9,615-9.8%-35.1%
Median sale valueAED 1.19m+10.2%-11.8%
Median AED/sqmAED 18,191-0.3%-2.4%
Registered valueAED 16.67bn-5.2%-42.6%
Average home size88 sqm+7.3%-4.3%

The median ticket rose because larger homes traded; achieved pricing per square metre did not. Confidence is high, based on 9,615 DLD secondary registrations. Against last year, both liquidity and unit pricing were weaker.

Year to 2026-09-13, 100,998 sales cleared, down 15.1% year on year. Median value fell 4.5%, while median AED/sqm rose 3.8%. The medium-term market still shows higher unit pricing on fewer deals. The latest settled window is weaker: that annual price growth has disappeared.

Secondary registrations and average rate by quarter

DLD secondary registrations; 2026-Q3 through 13 September

Secondary registrations and average AED per sqm have declined from their 2026-Q1 peak

Villas resisted the apartment slowdown

Segment, transactedDealsDeals vs priorDeals vs year agoAED/sqm vs priorAED/sqm vs year agoConfidence
Apartments8,902-10.8%-37.0%-0.4%-8.8%High
Villas713+4.9%+2.6%+8.3%+10.7%High; mix-sensitive

Apartments made up 93% of registrations and drove the market-wide decline. Villas moved in the opposite direction, with more deals and higher average AED/sqm. Their average size shifted, so this is strong relative performance rather than proof that every villa submarket appreciated.

Development-led corridors split sharply

Area, transactedDealsDeals vs priorAED/sqm vs priorDeals vs year agoAED/sqm vs year agoConfidence
Wadi Al Safa 3419+149.4%+0.8%n/an/aHigh current sample; development-led
Motor City307+78.5%+11.1%-33.7%+3.7%High; mix-sensitive
Business Bay293+8.1%-3.4%-77.0%-15.5%High; mix-sensitive
JVT213+15.8%-0.3%-41.8%+7.1%High
JVC682-10.1%+3.2%-50.8%-4.0%High
Dubai Land342-26.8%+3.3%-51.3%-3.6%High
Dubai Marina186-14.7%-5.1%-33.3%-8.0%High
Meydan152-50.0%-17.7%n/an/aHigh; mix-sensitive
Jabal Ali Industrial Second316-68.9%-0.7%n/an/aHigh; development-led

Wadi Al Safa 3 and Motor City were the clearest short-window gainers. Meydan lost both volume and unit pricing. Business Bay's modest volume improvement should not be mistaken for recovery: registrations were 77% below last year and average AED/sqm was 15.5% lower.

Dubai South remained the main annual exception. It recorded 1,504 deals, up 105% year on year, while average AED/sqm rose 15.1%. The lower median ticket reflects a much smaller average home, not cheaper unit pricing.

Seller expectations still lead achieved prices

ApartmentLive median askLive listingsTransacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-09-13Asking premium
1BRAED 1.39m42,284AED 1.22m+14.4%
2BRAED 2.60m32,637AED 2.11m+23.1%
3BRAED 4.70m12,305AED 3.70m+27.1%

Live figures are dated 2026-09-26. Exact premiums carry moderate confidence because the groups are not matched unit for unit. The direction is high confidence: sellers are still asking materially more than buyers are paying, especially in larger apartments.

Cooling is now a multi-quarter pattern

Citywide average secondary pricing peaked at AED 21,165/sqm in 2026-Q1, fell to AED 20,147 in Q2 and stands at AED 19,240 in partial Q3. Dubai Marina fell 8.2% then 5.7%; Business Bay fell 12.4% then 4.5%; JVC recovered 2.8% in Q2 but reversed 7.3% in partial Q3. Dubai South remains the exception, rising 7.3% and another 1.5%. Weakness across the established apartment corridors is broader than a one-period blip.

Value corridors retain the strongest indicative yields

Typical 1BR area benchmarkGross yieldRent sampleReady-resale sampleConfidence
Dubai Silicon Oasis8.0%6,2561,366High; area level
Dubai South7.8%3,108620High; area level
Dubai Production City7.6%2,796736High; area level
JVC7.0%16,0754,606High; area level
Business Bay5.7%6,2241,728High; area level
Dubai Marina4.8%9,2862,695High; area level

Indicative gross yield for a typical one-bedroom apartment

Area-level DLD rent and ready-resale benchmarks; varying local typical sizes

Indicative gross one-bedroom yields are highest in Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai South and Dubai Production City

These are gross area benchmarks using each area's typical 1BR size and ready-resale prices. They are not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs reduce realised yield.

Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent ready-resale AED/sqm comparables, not headline asking prices. Sellers face a clear liquidity test: larger-apartment asking premiums above 20% sit beside declining deal volume.

Method and caveats

  • Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-09-13. Rental figures use the standard outlier filter; sale figures cover secondary registrations. The newest fortnight was excluded because registrations remain incomplete.
  • Live figures use the full-market listings corpus dated 2026-09-26. Asking-to-transacted comparisons are broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
  • Citywide and principal-area findings are high confidence, generally based on more than 100 transactions. Exact asking gaps are moderate confidence because listing and transaction mixes differ. The 4BR rental result is low confidence at 70 registrations.
  • No major Eid holiday falls within the latest, prior, or year-ago four-week windows; no holiday adjustment was required.
  • Partial 2026-Q3 trajectory runs through 2026-09-13 and is not a completed quarter. Yield estimates are gross, area-level and indicative.

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