Secondary deal flow rebounded on smaller tickets while rental pricing stayed below last year
In the 4 weeks to 2026-08-09, secondary registrations rose 9.4% from the prior period, but median sale value fell 6.7%; rental volume slipped 2.5% as achieved rates held.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageSales activity recovered without fresh pricing power. Rents held over four weeks but remained cheaper per square metre than a year ago, while live asking gaps still favour tenants and buyers.
Rentals
Turnover eased; achieved rates held over four weeks
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-08-09 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent registrations | 14,697 | -2.5% | +4.9% |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 937 | +1.2% | -4.7% |
| Registered rent value | AED 1.74bn | -5.6% | +1.4% |
The short-window rental market was stable on price and slightly softer on volume. Confidence is high, based on 14,697 filtered DLD registrations. The prior four-week window included Islamic New Year, so the month-on-month volume comparison carries a calendar distortion; pricing and year-on-year evidence deserve more weight.
Year to 2026-08-09, 100,427 registrations cleared, up 2.2% year on year. Median annual rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm was down 0.2%. The latest annual decline in AED/sqm is therefore more pronounced than the year-to-date picture.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Aug 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
One- to three-bedroom apartments gained annual volume at lower rates
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 5,178 | -0.8% | +7.3% | +0.5% | -4.6% | High |
| 2BR | 2,983 | -4.1% | +7.0% | +1.1% | -3.2% | High |
| 3BR | 718 | -2.0% | +9.8% | -0.1% | -6.0% | High |
| 4BR | 37 | -15.9% | -11.9% | -16.1% | -25.3% | Low |
The clean signal is in 1BR to 3BR homes: more contracts than last year, but lower achieved rates per square metre. The 4BR move is too thin and mix-sensitive to treat as a market-wide correction.
Dubai Sports City gained momentum; prime corridors remained weaker than last year
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 1,388 | +5.4% | -1.0% | +6.0% | -10.7% | High |
| Business Bay | 905 | +4.5% | -0.8% | +26.2% | -9.8% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 791 | -5.8% | +1.0% | +23.0% | -7.7% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 492 | -9.7% | -2.2% | +11.3% | -13.1% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 437 | +10.6% | -3.3% | +56.6% | -9.9% | High |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 373 | +13.4% | -1.5% | +9.7% | -6.3% | High |
| Dubai Sports City | 315 | +29.6% | +12.3% | +20.7% | +0.8% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Dubai South | 286 | +25.4% | +7.2% | -50.3% | -10.7% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Town Square | 205 | -27.6% | +1.8% | -26.5% | -2.3% | High |
| Palm Jumeirah | 178 | -27.0% | -4.0% | +7.2% | -8.4% | High |
Dubai Sports City was the clearest short-window gainer on both registrations and AED/sqm. Dubai South also accelerated from the prior period, but its volume remained half last year's level. Town Square and Palm Jumeirah were the largest liquid volume losers. Across the established apartment corridors, year-on-year pricing was broadly lower.
Live supply still sits well above settled demand
| Apartment | Live median ask, 2026-08-22 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-08-09 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 84,999 | 45,377 | AED 70,240 | +21.0% |
| 2BR | AED 140,000 | 32,514 | AED 110,378 | +26.8% |
| 3BR | AED 240,000 | 9,879 | AED 170,584 | +40.7% |
The bedroom groups are broad rather than matched homes, so confidence in each exact premium is moderate. The direction is high confidence: the asking gap widens with size, giving tenants more room to negotiate larger apartments.
Live whole-market asking rent was AED 119,998 on 2026-08-22 across 133,953 listings. Median asking rent per sq ft eased to AED 109.1 from AED 110.8 on 2026-07-19. Asking supply is not showing renewed landlord pricing power. July Ejari registrations were 47.6% new contracts and 52.4% renewals, versus 50.5% new contracts a year earlier.
The weakness is a multi-quarter pattern
Citywide average rent per sqm peaked at AED 1,140 in 2025-Q4, fell to AED 1,011 in 2026-Q2 and sits at AED 1,003 in partial Q3. The decline is broad: Dubai Marina fell 16.0% in Q2 and another 6.9% in partial Q3; Business Bay fell 14.2% then 4.8%; JVC fell 12.1% then 1.0%; Dubai South fell 6.9% then 2.1%. Partial Q3 is not a completed quarter, but four distinct corridors point the same way.
Rental view: landlords should price against recent achieved rates, not live asks. Tenants have the strongest leverage in 2BR and 3BR apartments, where asking premiums are widest.
Secondary
Registrations rebounded, but the market cleared smaller tickets
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-08-09 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 11,009 | +9.4% | -24.0% |
| Median sale value | AED 1.05m | -6.7% | -21.1% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,274 | +0.4% | -0.3% |
| Registered value | AED 17.83bn | +5.1% | -39.3% |
More deals cleared, but not at higher unit pricing. Confidence is high, based on 11,009 DLD registrations. Average size fell to 81 sqm from 87 sqm in the prior period and 95 sqm a year ago, explaining much of the drop in sale values. The prior period included Islamic New Year, so the 9.4% volume rebound is directionally useful rather than a clean seasonal comparison.
Year to 2026-08-09, 88,930 sales cleared, down 11.0% year on year. Median sale value fell 3.0%, while median AED/sqm rose 4.8%. The medium-term picture remains higher unit pricing on fewer, smaller transactions; the latest four weeks are weaker than that longer trend.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Aug 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Apartments drove the rebound; villas weakened
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 10,342 | +10.7% | -25.1% | +0.1% | -5.5% | High |
| Villas | 667 | -7.5% | -3.1% | -4.2% | +0.2% | High |
Apartments supplied all of the short-window growth, with pricing per square metre effectively flat. Villas lost both volume and short-term pricing. This was a rotation into smaller apartment stock, not broad appreciation.
Jabal Ali and City of Arabia added deals; JVT and Dubai Sports City lost liquidity
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 1,744 | -22.6% | +2.0% | +211.4% | +11.1% | High, mix-sensitive |
| Jabal Ali Industrial Second | 1,130 | +610.7% | -0.9% | n/a | n/a | High, launch/mix-led |
| JVC | 768 | +17.6% | -6.2% | -52.0% | +0.1% | High |
| City of Arabia | 434 | +87.9% | +3.5% | n/a | n/a | High, mix-sensitive |
| Meydan | 305 | +20.1% | +1.9% | n/a | n/a | High |
| Business Bay | 267 | +0.4% | -1.5% | -73.9% | -8.5% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 225 | +12.5% | +0.5% | -43.2% | -4.5% | High |
| Arjan | 185 | -11.1% | -2.3% | -52.8% | +1.3% | High |
| JVT | 174 | -41.0% | -1.8% | -59.7% | +8.9% | High |
| Dubai Sports City | 148 | -35.4% | -0.9% | -22.9% | +8.3% | High |
Jabal Ali Industrial Second and City of Arabia dominated short-window volume growth, but both moves are development- and mix-led. Among established corridors, JVC and Dubai Marina added deals without gaining price per square metre. JVT and Dubai Sports City were the clearest liquid volume losers. Year-on-year turnover remained sharply lower across JVC, Business Bay, Dubai Marina, Arjan and JVT.
Live seller expectations remain ahead of settled deals
| Apartment | Live median ask, 2026-08-22 | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-08-09 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 1.35m | 39,086 | AED 1.18m | +14.4% |
| 2BR | AED 2.55m | 29,665 | AED 2.00m | +27.5% |
| 3BR | AED 4.68m | 11,023 | AED 3.40m | +37.6% |
These are broad bedroom groups rather than matched units, so exact premiums carry moderate confidence. The negotiation signal is high confidence, particularly for larger apartments.
The live whole-market median ask was AED 2.18m on 2026-08-22 across 121,541 listings. Median asking price per sq ft was AED 1,815.6, effectively unchanged from AED 1,816.0 on 2026-07-19. Sellers have not materially reset headline pricing even as achieved ticket sizes have fallen.
Cooling now extends across several quarters
Citywide average sale pricing peaked at AED 21,165/sqm in 2026-Q1, fell to AED 20,148 in Q2 and stands at AED 19,245 in partial Q3. Dubai Marina fell 8.2% in Q2 and 3.6% in partial Q3; Business Bay fell 12.4% then 2.5%; JVC rose 2.8% in Q2 but reversed 7.2% in partial Q3. Dubai South is the exception, rising 7.3% and then 2.2%. The direction is uneven, but weakness across three major apartment corridors makes this more than a four-week blip.
Value corridors still lead indicative gross yield
| Indicative 75 sqm area yield | Gross yield | Rent sample | Ready-resale sample | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 8.2% | 2,299 | 406 | Moderate |
| Dubai Sports City | 8.0% | 4,011 | 1,228 | Moderate |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 7.9% | 6,253 | 1,375 | Moderate |
| JVC | 6.8% | 16,022 | 4,829 | Moderate |
| Arjan | 6.7% | 493 | 155 | Moderate |
Yield Comparison
These are area-level gross benchmarks for a 75 sqm apartment, not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs reduce realised yield.
Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent AED/sqm comparables, especially on 2BR and 3BR apartments. Sellers still have support from higher year-to-date unit pricing, but current liquidity is concentrated where ticket expectations adjust.
Method and caveats
- Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-08-09. Rental figures use the standard outlier filter; sale figures cover the secondary market.
- Live asking figures use the full-market listings corpus dated 2026-08-22. Asking-to-transacted comparisons are broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
- Citywide and principal area findings are high confidence because samples are generally above 100 deals. Exact asking gaps and area-level yields are moderate confidence; the 4BR rental result is low confidence at 37 registrations.
- The prior four-week window includes Islamic New Year. Short-window volume changes should therefore be read with more caution than pricing and year-on-year comparisons.
- Partial 2026-Q3 trajectory runs through 2026-08-09 and is not a completed quarter.