Rentals rebounded over the latest settled four weeks but remain cheaper than last year. Secondary liquidity weakened again, while live asking prices still lead achieved deals.
Rentals
Turnover accelerated and short-window rates firmed
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-09-20 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent registrations | 20,243 | +21.1% | +14.9% |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -3.0% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 983 | +3.8% | -5.3% |
| Registered rent value | AED 2.49bn | +21.4% | +12.8% |
More leases cleared at firmer achieved rates, but the market has not recovered last year's pricing. Confidence is high, based on 20,243 filtered DLD registrations. Average home size fell from 127 sqm in the prior period to 123 sqm, yet median AED/sqm still rose. That makes the short-window improvement more than a larger-home mix effect.
Year to 2026-09-20, 130,343 registrations cleared, up 5.8% year on year. Median annual rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm was 1.1% lower. The latest rebound is stronger than the medium-horizon picture.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Sep 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
One- and two-bedroom apartments carried the rebound
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 7,489 | +26.6% | +21.7% | +3.7% | -6.8% | High |
| 2BR | 4,220 | +24.0% | +15.9% | +5.2% | -3.8% | High |
| 3BR | 976 | +12.1% | +27.6% | +3.8% | -6.6% | High |
| 4BR | 80 | +33.3% | +42.9% | -2.2% | -2.5% | Low; mix-sensitive |
Two-bedroom homes recorded the strongest reliable short-window rate gain. Every clean bedroom group remained below last year's median AED/sqm. Studio registrations cannot be isolated defensibly from the DLD room coding in this cut; the data does not support a clean studio comparison.
Prime corridors led volume; two outer corridors moved backward
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah | 309 | +52.2% | +4.3% | +27.2% | -14.4% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Downtown Dubai | 876 | +42.9% | +4.3% | +33.5% | -11.1% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 1,350 | +41.2% | +5.0% | +37.1% | -10.0% | High |
| Business Bay | 1,420 | +40.5% | +1.1% | +29.1% | -6.3% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 724 | +39.0% | +5.0% | +73.2% | -8.2% | High; mix-sensitive |
| Dubai Sports City | 275 | -13.5% | -5.3% | -8.0% | -2.7% | High |
| Dubai South | 249 | -16.2% | -4.8% | -34.0% | -2.7% | High |
The rebound was broad across the core apartment corridors. Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai and Dubai Hills Estate combined sharply higher turnover with firmer short-window rates. Dubai Sports City and Dubai South lost both registrations and unit pricing against the prior four weeks.
The annual test is less flattering. All five core corridors shown above remained below their year-ago median AED/sqm despite higher turnover. Deira was a notable exception: 334 registrations, down 13.3% year on year, but median AED/sqm up 6.2%.
Live supply remains priced above cleared demand
| Apartment | Live median ask | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-09-20 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 84,999 | 47,286 | AED 72,247 | +17.7% |
| 2BR | AED 144,990 | 35,401 | AED 115,796 | +25.2% |
| 3BR | AED 249,999 | 11,560 | AED 187,134 | +33.6% |
Live figures are dated 2026-10-03. These are broad bedroom groups rather than matched homes, so exact premiums carry moderate confidence. Their direction is high confidence: available supply is priced above signed contracts, and negotiation room widens with apartment size.
Live apartment inventory totals 112,275 studios through 3BR homes. Registered Ejari contracts also show demand broadening: new leases represented 51.5% of September contracts, up from 50.2% in August and 51.1% in September 2025. Counts are reliable; contract medians in this series are mix-sensitive.
The rebound sits inside a broader correction
Citywide average rent per sqm peaked at AED 1,140 in 2025-Q4, fell to AED 1,011 in 2026-Q2 and stands at AED 1,029 in partial Q3 through 2026-09-20. The latest settled four weeks were stronger, but the annual comparison remains negative across most major corridors. This is a rebound, not yet a new multi-quarter uptrend.
Rental view: landlords have firmer near-term evidence, especially in 1BR and 2BR stock. Tenants still have leverage where live asking premiums exceed 20%, particularly in larger apartments.
Secondary
Liquidity fell again; the higher ticket came from larger homes
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-09-20 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 8,917 | -17.0% | -40.5% |
| Median sale value | AED 1.22m | +10.9% | -10.0% |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,026 | -1.3% | -3.3% |
| Registered value | AED 15.71bn | -13.0% | -47.9% |
| Average home size | 90 sqm | +7.1% | -2.2% |
The median ticket rose because larger homes traded; achieved pricing per square metre slipped. Confidence is high, based on 8,917 DLD registrations. Against last year, both liquidity and unit pricing were weaker.
Year to 2026-09-20, 103,018 sales cleared, down 16.4% year on year. Median value fell 4.5%, while median AED/sqm rose 3.4%. The medium-horizon market still shows higher unit pricing on fewer deals. That growth has disappeared in the latest settled window.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Sep 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Villas resisted the apartment slowdown
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 8,236 | -18.0% | -42.4% | -1.4% | -4.2% | High |
| Villas | 681 | -3.3% | -1.6% | +4.0% | +9.4% | High; mix-sensitive |
Apartments made up 92% of registrations and drove the market-wide decline. Villas were nearly flat on volume and achieved higher median AED/sqm. Villa sizes and locations shifted, so this shows relative resilience rather than uniform appreciation.
Development-led gains could not offset broad corridor weakness
| Area, transacted | Deals | Deals vs prior | Median AED/sqm vs prior | Deals vs year ago | Median AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 397 | +198.5% | +9.6% | +21.4% | +1.9% | High; development-led |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 449 | +100.4% | -1.8% | n/a | n/a | High current sample; development-led |
| Motor City | 314 | +70.7% | +9.7% | -37.6% | -5.3% | High; mix-sensitive |
| JVC | 700 | -7.9% | -1.8% | -54.0% | -9.1% | High |
| Dubai Land | 318 | -21.5% | -3.6% | -50.6% | -4.8% | High |
| Dubai South | 1,033 | -45.9% | -1.5% | +42.3% | +18.3% | High; development-led |
| Jabal Ali Industrial Second | 303 | -68.2% | -3.0% | n/a | n/a | High; development-led |
Dubai Creek Harbour was the clearest short-window gainer, with both volume and unit pricing higher. Wadi Al Safa 3 doubled registrations without gaining median AED/sqm. Dubai South remained the annual standout but lost almost half its volume from the prior four weeks. Its much smaller average home versus last year makes the lower ticket a mix effect, not cheaper unit pricing.
Established apartment markets remain under pressure. Dubai Marina recorded 177 deals, down 15.3% from the prior period and 36.3% year on year; median AED/sqm fell 17.2% and 4.1%, respectively. Business Bay volume was broadly flat over four weeks but 74.0% below last year, while average AED/sqm was 16.6% lower year on year.
Seller expectations still lead achieved prices
| Apartment | Live median ask | Live listings | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-09-20 | Asking premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | AED 1.40m | 42,991 | AED 1.22m | +14.4% |
| 2BR | AED 2.60m | 33,084 | AED 2.11m | +22.9% |
| 3BR | AED 4.70m | 12,398 | AED 3.65m | +28.6% |
Live figures are dated 2026-10-03. Exact premiums carry moderate confidence because listings and transactions are not matched unit for unit. The direction is high confidence: sellers are asking materially more than buyers are paying, especially in larger apartments.
Cooling is now a multi-quarter pattern
Citywide average secondary pricing peaked at AED 21,165/sqm in 2026-Q1, fell to AED 20,146 in Q2 and stands at AED 19,220 in partial Q3 through 2026-09-20. Deal volume fell from 40,642 in Q1 to 33,306 in Q2 and 29,070 in partial Q3. The four-week decline therefore extends, rather than contradicts, the wider cooling trend.
Value corridors retain the strongest indicative yields
| Typical 1BR area benchmark | Gross yield | Recent rent sample | Ready-resale sample | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Silicon Oasis | 7.9% | 221 | 606 | High; area level |
| Dubai South | 7.9% | 267 | 397 | High; area level |
| Dubai Production City | 7.7% | 208 | 410 | High; area level |
| JVC | 7.0% | 887 | 222 | High; area level |
| Business Bay | 5.6% | 413 | 641 | High; area level |
| Dubai Marina | 5.0% | 601 | 387 | High; area level |
Yield Comparison
These are gross area benchmarks using each area's typical 1BR size and ready-resale prices. They are not building-specific net returns. Service charges, vacancy, maintenance and acquisition costs reduce realised yield.
Secondary view: buyers should negotiate from recent ready-resale AED/sqm comparables, not headline asking prices. Sellers face a liquidity test: larger-apartment asking premiums above 20% sit beside a third consecutive quarter of weaker deal flow.
Method and caveats
- Transacted figures are DLD registrations for the exact settled window 4 weeks to 2026-09-20. Rental figures use the standard outlier filter; sale figures cover secondary registrations. The newest fortnight was excluded because registrations remain incomplete.
- Live figures use the full-market listings corpus dated 2026-10-03. Asking-to-transacted comparisons are broad bedroom segments, not identical homes.
- Citywide and principal-area findings are high confidence, generally based on more than 100 transactions. Exact asking gaps are moderate confidence because listing and transaction mixes differ. The 4BR rental result is low confidence at 80 registrations.
- No Eid holiday falls within the latest, prior, or year-ago four-week windows; no Eid adjustment was required.
- Partial 2026-Q3 trajectory runs through 2026-09-20 and is not a completed quarter. Yield estimates are gross, area-level and indicative.