Rental turnover surged at softer rates while secondary volume recovered without fresh pricing power
The 4 weeks to 2026-07-12 cleared more homes, but live asking premiums of 21%–41% in rentals and 13%–37% in secondary apartments leave negotiation room.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageMore rentals and secondary sales cleared in the settled four-week window, but achieved AED/sqm softened. Year-on-year rental demand grew; secondary volume remained sharply lower as live asks stayed ambitious.
Rentals
Turnover rose; achieved pricing did not
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-12 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New rental registrations | 14,502 | +43.7% | +15.6% | High |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | -2.3% | High |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 923 | -0.4% | -1.9% | High |
| Registered rent value | AED 1.76bn | +44.4% | +10.1% | High |
The volume rebound is not a clean momentum signal. The prior window contained Eid Al Adha, while the latest did not. The year-on-year windows are also imperfectly aligned because Eid shifted earlier in 2026. Pricing is clearer: more contracts cleared, but not at higher rates.
Year to 2026-07-12, registrations reached 83,770, up 0.7% year on year. Median annual rent was unchanged and median AED/sqm rose 0.8%. The latest softness is real, but the medium-horizon market is broadly flat rather than falling sharply.
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jul 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Larger apartments absorbed fastest and discounted most
| Bedroom segment, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | Median rent | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 5,019 | +49.0% | AED 70,240 | -1.2% | -5.2% | High |
| 2BR | 2,991 | +41.4% | AED 110,378 | -0.1% | -5.0% | High |
| 3BR | 708 | +71.8% | AED 170,584 | -4.4% | -14.0% | High |
| 4BR | 42 | +61.5% | AED 331,134 | -1.6% | -13.0% | Low |
Three-bedroom registrations grew fastest, but their achieved AED/sqm fell most. This is absorption through price adjustment, not stronger landlord leverage. Studio records are not reliably separated in the transacted room field, so no defensible studio comparison is available.
Established apartment corridors led the volume rebound—and much of the repricing
| Community, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Marina | 799 | +64.4% | -4.5% | -9.6% | High |
| Business Bay | 834 | +60.4% | -3.0% | -5.2% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 484 | +51.7% | -4.2% | -13.7% | High |
| JVC | 1,287 | +53.6% | -2.8% | -10.1% | High |
| Al Jaddaf | 289 | +69.0% | -6.1% | -2.5% | High |
| Arjan | 273 | +76.1% | -3.2% | -3.9% | High |
| Town Square | 279 | +42.4% | +4.1% | -3.3% | High |
| Dubai South | 223 | +26.7% | -1.5% | -1.5% | High |
Dubai Marina, Business Bay, Downtown Dubai and JVC all recorded much more turnover at lower achieved rates. Town Square was the short-term exception, though it remained down year on year. On volume, Deira (-35.1%) and Dubai South (-29.9%) were notable year-on-year losers while Arjan (+73.9%) and Dubai Hills Estate (+56.9%) gained.
Live supply remains priced well above clearing levels
Live inventory is dated 2026-07-25. It is active stock, not the number of homes added during the transacted window.
| Apartment segment, live | Listings | Median ask | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-07-12 | Asking premium | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio | 19,819 | AED 50,000 | Not reliably comparable | — | Asking: high |
| 1BR | 45,007 | AED 84,999 | AED 70,240 | +21.0% | High |
| 2BR | 31,570 | AED 140,000 | AED 110,378 | +26.8% | High |
| 3BR | 9,586 | AED 240,000 | AED 170,584 | +40.7% | High |
The gap expands with size. These are not matched units, so some premium reflects location, condition and furnishing mix. Even so, gaps of this breadth explain why turnover can rise while achieved rates fall. Standard units priced near the portal median should expect negotiation or additional vacancy.
Live market-wide asking rent was AED 115,000 on 2026-07-25 across 134,529 listings, down from AED 118,000 on 2026-07-19. Seven daily observations are too short for a trend call, but they do not show near-term asking pressure upward.
The weakness is a multi-quarter pattern
Citywide average achieved rent moved from AED 1,135/sqm in 2025 Q4 to AED 1,115 in 2026 Q1 and AED 1,005 in Q2. The fall was broad: Q2 declined 15.6% quarter on quarter in Dubai Marina, 14.1% in Business Bay, 12.1% in JVC and 7.5% in Dubai South. Early Q3 points lower again, but remains incomplete.
Rent Trend Comparison
AED per sqm · quarterly avg
The practical reading is simple: demand is clearing homes, but supply and ambitious asks are preventing that demand from becoming higher achieved rents.
Secondary
Buyers returned, but pricing per sqm was flat
| Transacted measure | 4 weeks to 2026-07-12 | vs prior 4 weeks | vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary registrations | 10,029 | +10.5% | -29.6% | High |
| Median sale price | AED 1.13m | +1.4% | -15.7% | High |
| Median AED/sqm | AED 18,200 | -0.2% | +0.7% | High |
| Registered value | AED 16.91bn | +12.7% | -40.0% | High |
The prior-period comparison is lifted by the post-Eid registration rebound. Against the same four weeks last year, volume and value remain materially lower. The lower ticket but stable AED/sqm reflects smaller homes: average size was 86 sqm versus 96 sqm a year ago.
Year to 2026-07-12, 77,533 secondary deals were registered, down 8.7% year on year. Median AED/sqm rose 5.9%, while the median ticket slipped 0.6%. Per-square-metre pricing has therefore held better than liquidity.
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–Jul 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Villas drove the latest rebound
| Segment, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | Median price | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 9,308 | +8.4% | AED 1.06m | 0.0% | +0.3% | High |
| Villas | 721 | +49.0% | AED 3.35m | +4.8% | +6.8% | High |
Villas were only 7.2% of deals but accounted for much of the rebound. Their volume remained 19.4% below last year, so this is a recovery from a holiday-distorted base, not a return to peak liquidity. Apartment pricing per sqm was effectively flat in both comparisons.
Growth corridors and established markets moved in different directions
| Community, transacted | Deals | Volume vs prior | AED/sqm vs prior | AED/sqm vs year ago | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 2,252 | -8.1% | -0.1% | -5.7% | High |
| JVC | 645 | +22.9% | -0.2% | -0.5% | High |
| JVT | 296 | +51.8% | +2.2% | +13.0% | High |
| Business Bay | 265 | +22.1% | +1.5% | -11.2% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 200 | +50.4% | +0.8% | -19.5% | High |
| Dubai Sports City | 229 | +73.5% | +2.9% | +5.0% | High |
| Arjan | 208 | -28.0% | -3.6% | +8.7% | High |
| Dubai Islands | 150 | -41.9% | -17.9% | +6.3% | High |
Dubai Sports City and JVT combined stronger short-term turnover with higher AED/sqm. Dubai Marina recovered on volume but remained sharply below last year's pricing. Dubai South still represented 22.5% of all deals; its 299% year-on-year volume rise came with much smaller units and a 5.7% decline in median AED/sqm. That is supply-led absorption, not fourfold demand for like-for-like homes.
The clearest volume losers versus the prior window were DIP (-51.6%) and Dubai Islands (-41.9%). Motor City (+67.3%) was a defensible price gainer at +10.5% AED/sqm on 174 deals. Extreme moves in Meydan and other rapidly changing areas are mix-sensitive and should not be read as pure appreciation.
Live sellers continue to test above achieved prices
Live inventory is dated 2026-07-25.
| Apartment segment, live | Listings | Median ask | Transacted median, 4 weeks to 2026-07-12 | Asking premium | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 33,994 | AED 1.35m | AED 1.20m | +12.5% | High |
| 2BR | 25,860 | AED 2.50m | AED 2.03m | +23.3% | High |
| 3BR | 9,340 | AED 4.65m | AED 3.40m | +36.6% | High |
Negotiation room is smallest in the liquid 1BR market and widest for larger apartments. Active inventory is much larger than four-week clearing volume, although listings and registrations are different measures and listing stock may contain duplicates or off-plan marketing.
The market-wide live median ask was AED 2.15m on 2026-07-25 across 109,196 listings, versus AED 2.19m on 2026-07-19. Again, one week is observation, not trend.
The market is no longer moving as one
Citywide average sale price per sqm peaked at AED 21,131 in 2026 Q1 and fell to AED 20,135 in Q2. Dubai South rose 7.2% quarter on quarter in Q2, JVC recovered 2.7% and Arjan gained 2.0%. Dubai Marina fell 8.0% and Business Bay 12.4%.
Sale Trend Comparison
AED per sqm · quarterly avg
The year-to-date market still shows higher AED/sqm, but the multi-quarter evidence does not support a blanket appreciation call. Volume is concentrating in newer and smaller-ticket stock while mature corridors reprice.
Yield remains strongest in the mid-market apartment belt
The following are area-level 1BR gross-yield benchmarks, not building-specific forecasts.
| Area | Gross yield | Rent samples | Sale samples | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 6.30% | 14,960 | 17,593 | High |
| Dubai Sports City | 6.25% | 3,954 | 2,833 | High |
| Arjan | 5.50% | 470 | 963 | High |
| Dubai Marina | 5.42% | 8,828 | 5,139 | Moderate |
| Dubai South | 5.31% | 3,141 | 6,607 | High |
| Business Bay | 4.42% | 5,766 | 7,841 | Moderate |
JVC and Dubai Sports City lead this comparison at roughly 6.3% gross. Net yield will be lower after service charges, vacancy, maintenance and transaction costs. Building selection can outweigh an area-level difference of a few tenths of a percentage point.
Yield Comparison
What to watch
- Landlords: turnover is healthy, but the transacted evidence does not support portal-level premiums for ordinary stock.
- Sellers: the 1BR market has the tightest asking gap. Larger apartments require more disciplined pricing.
- Investors: JVC and Dubai Sports City offer the strongest supported income case in this comparison; premium-core areas provide lower gross yield.
- Next signal: whether rental AED/sqm stabilises after two weak quarters, and whether villa-led secondary momentum survives a holiday-normal comparison.
Data notes
- Transacted: DLD registrations for the fixed, settled 4 weeks to 2026-07-12, compared with 2026-05-18 to 2026-06-14 and 2025-06-15 to 2025-07-12. Rental data covers new contracts. Citywide rental pricing excludes low-value and implausible AED/sqm records.
- Asking: live corpus as of 2026-07-25. Listings are offers, not completed deals, and are not matched unit by unit to transactions.
- Current four-week citywide figures carry high confidence: 14,502 qualifying rental registrations and 10,029 secondary registrations. Thin or mix-sensitive comparisons are labelled separately.