Dubai rentals found volume, while secondary sales lost heat at the lower end
TRANSACTED DLD data for the 4 weeks to 2026-05-17 shows rental deals up 34.8% versus the prior 4 weeks, while secondary sales volume fell 20.8% and median sale price dropped 20.9%.
By Hazel's Research DeskPublished CoverageRentals regained clearing volume without broad price growth. Secondary sales softened in volume and apartment pricing, while villas held the price line.
Rentals
Citywide movement — TRANSACTED, 4 weeks to 2026-05-17
| Measure | Latest 4 weeks | Vs prior 4 weeks | Vs same 4 weeks year ago | Sample / confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 9,031 | +34.8% | -19.0% | High |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | +1.2% | 0.0% | High |
| Avg annual rent | AED 116,855 | -3.0% | -0.7% | High |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 1,119 | -0.3% | -2.6% | High |
| Total rent value | AED 1.06bn | +30.7% | -19.5% | High |
The rental story is volume, not price. Deals rebounded strongly from the prior 4-week window, but AED/sqm was flat and the median annual rent stayed anchored at AED 85,292. Against the same 4 weeks last year, rents are basically unchanged while registrations are lower.
Rent Monthly Activity
Jan 2026–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Year-to-date grounding — TRANSACTED, 2026-01-01 to 2026-05-17
| Measure | 2026 YTD | Same span 2025 | Change | Sample / confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 52,327 | 54,799 | -4.5% | High |
| Median annual rent | AED 85,292 | AED 85,292 | 0.0% | High |
| Avg annual rent | AED 118,789 | AED 117,194 | +1.4% | High |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 1,171 | AED 1,151 | +1.7% | High |
| Total rent value | AED 6.22bn | AED 6.42bn | -3.2% | High |
YTD data is steadier than the weekly pulse: fewer deals, slightly higher AED/sqm, and no change in the median rent. That is not a runaway rental market. It is a market arguing with itself in public, as markets like to do.
Where the rental action moved — TRANSACTED, latest 4 weeks vs prior 4 weeks
| Area | Deals | Deal change | Median rent | Median AED/sqm change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South | 241 | +106.0% | AED 86,295 | -0.2% | Volume doubled; price per sqm flat |
| Downtown Dubai | 244 | +83.5% | AED 133,141 | -3.5% | More clearing at lower pricing |
| Dubai Marina | 404 | +70.5% | AED 118,272 | -4.3% | Stronger volume, weaker unit pricing |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 212 | +61.8% | AED 135,464 | -11.1% | Mix shifted cheaper or larger |
| JLT | 211 | +58.7% | AED 90,309 | +4.4% | One of the cleaner price gainers |
| Business Bay | 429 | +55.4% | AED 92,316 | -9.5% | High volume, softer achieved pricing |
| JVC | 741 | +41.1% | AED 74,254 | -1.5% | Largest rental market stayed liquid |
The biggest rental clearances were in JVC, Business Bay, Dubai Marina and Downtown Dubai. But most high-volume corridors cleared more units without pushing AED/sqm higher. JLT and Al Jaddaf were the exceptions: JLT median AED/sqm rose 4.4% on 211 deals; Al Jaddaf rose 6.3% on 176 deals.
Segment mix — TRANSACTED, known bedroom records, latest 4 weeks vs prior 4 weeks
| Segment | Deals | Deal change | Median annual rent | Median AED/sqm change | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 3,006 | +48.3% | AED 72,049 | -0.8% | High |
| 2BR | 1,777 | +46.7% | AED 110,378 | -2.7% | High |
| 3BR | 364 | +61.8% | AED 180,618 | -10.2% | Moderate |
| 5BR+ | 622 | +16.7% | AED 57,196 | +3.2% | Moderate |
| Studio | 30 | n/a | AED 80,275 | n/a | Low |
Bedroom tagging is incomplete: 3,212 rental deals in the window were not bedroom-classified. Among known bedrooms, the liquidity impulse sat in 1BR and 2BR stock. The 3BR market moved more deals but at materially lower AED/sqm.
Supply versus clearing — ASKING live on 2026-06-01 vs TRANSACTED 4 weeks to 2026-05-17
| Area | Live rental listings | 4-week DLD rental deals | Live median asking rent | DLD median transacted rent | Asking gap | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 12,814 | 741 | AED 75,000 | AED 74,254 | +1.0% | High |
| Business Bay | 7,913 | 429 | AED 110,000 | AED 92,316 | +19.2% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 6,994 | 404 | AED 129,000 | AED 118,272 | +9.1% | High |
| Downtown Dubai | 6,979 | 244 | AED 185,000 | AED 133,141 | +39.0% | High |
| Dubai South | 1,685 | 241 | AED 119,999 | AED 86,295 | +39.1% | High |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 4,576 | 212 | AED 160,000 | AED 135,464 | +18.1% | High |
JVC is the cleanest rental clearing market: asking and transacted medians are almost aligned. Downtown Dubai and Dubai South show the largest negotiation room, with live asking medians about 39% above achieved medians. That is not a typo; it just looks like one because hope is not a pricing model.
Multi-quarter trajectory — TRANSACTED
| Period | Deals | Avg AED/sqm | Median annual rent | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 | 36,107 | AED 1,150 | AED 85,292 | Baseline |
| 2025 Q2 | 33,872 | AED 1,147 | AED 85,292 | Flat |
| 2025 Q3 | 45,468 | AED 1,177 | AED 87,298 | Firmer |
| 2025 Q4 | 46,222 | AED 1,208 | AED 85,292 | Higher AED/sqm |
| 2026 Q1 | 38,185 | AED 1,190 | AED 85,292 | Softer from Q4 |
| 2026 Q2 to 2026-05-17 | 14,142 | AED 1,121 | AED 85,292 | Lower, partial quarter |
Rent Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
The broad direction is softer on AED/sqm since late 2025, while the median rent is sticky. That points to mix and negotiation pressure more than a clean headline rent reset.
Secondary
Citywide movement — TRANSACTED, 4 weeks to 2026-05-17
| Measure | Latest 4 weeks | Vs prior 4 weeks | Vs same 4 weeks year ago | Sample / confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 9,132 | -20.8% | -29.2% | High |
| Median sale price | AED 1.27m | -20.9% | -6.3% | High |
| Avg sale price | AED 2.16m | -1.3% | -0.1% | High |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 22,768 | -8.7% | -0.6% | High |
| Total sales value | AED 19.73bn | -21.8% | -29.3% | High |
Secondary slowed clearly. Volume fell, total value fell, and the median sale price dropped harder than the average, which says the lower and mid-market mix weakened more than the top end.
Sale Monthly Activity
Jan 2026–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
Year-to-date grounding — TRANSACTED, 2026-01-01 to 2026-05-17
| Measure | 2026 YTD | Same span 2025 | Change | Sample / confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deals | 55,677 | 56,489 | -1.4% | High |
| Median sale price | AED 1.52m | AED 1.43m | +5.9% | High |
| Avg sale price | AED 2.25m | AED 2.14m | +4.9% | High |
| Avg AED/sqm | AED 23,948 | AED 22,588 | +6.0% | High |
| Total sales value | AED 125.02bn | AED 120.95bn | +3.4% | High |
The 4-week secondary slowdown has not erased the YTD gain. Through 2026-05-17, prices are still above the same 2025 span, with average AED/sqm up 6.0%. The current window is a pullback inside a stronger medium-term tape.
Where secondary moved — TRANSACTED, latest 4 weeks vs prior 4 weeks
| Area | Deals | Deal change | Median sale price | Median AED/sqm change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIP | 476 | +60.8% | AED 945,400 | +1.6% | Volume outlier, price steady |
| Dubai Islands | 410 | -5.3% | AED 3.16m | +9.9% | Premium island stock held pricing |
| Al Satwa | 193 | -4.9% | AED 1.56m | +9.8% | Smaller market, strong price move |
| JVC | 566 | -28.5% | AED 1.01m | -8.4% | Volume and AED/sqm both weaker |
| Business Bay | 220 | -38.2% | AED 1.91m | -15.4% | Sharp repricing in achieved deals |
| Dubai South | 735 | -40.2% | AED 1.15m | -1.7% | Volume fell; AED/sqm held better than headline price |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | 170 | -71.1% | AED 2.15m | -5.5% | Clearance dropped sharply |
Dubai South remained the largest secondary market by deal count, but it was smaller and cheaper than the prior window. Dubai Islands is the cleaner premium bright spot: 410 deals, median AED/sqm up 9.9%, and year-on-year median AED/sqm up 27.5%.
Segment mix — TRANSACTED, latest 4 weeks vs prior 4 weeks
| Segment | Deals | Deal change | Median sale price | Median AED/sqm change | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 8,311 | -21.2% | AED 1.20m | -10.7% | High |
| Villas | 821 | -16.8% | AED 4.75m | +24.5% | High |
The secondary slowdown is apartment-led. Villas had fewer deals but much stronger achieved pricing, with median AED/sqm up 24.5%. That is likely a mix effect toward higher-value villa stock, but it is still a real transaction signal.
Supply versus clearing — ASKING live on 2026-06-01 vs TRANSACTED 4 weeks to 2026-05-17
| Area | Live sale listings | 4-week DLD sale deals | Live median asking price | DLD median transacted price | Asking gap | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVC | 7,177 | 566 | AED 1.16m | AED 1.01m | +14.9% | High |
| Dubai South | 3,342 | 735 | AED 1.79m | AED 1.15m | +55.6% | High |
| Dubai Islands | 2,866 | 410 | AED 3.30m | AED 3.16m | +4.4% | High |
| Business Bay | 6,688 | 220 | AED 1.93m | AED 1.91m | +1.0% | High |
| Dubai Marina | 3,623 | 170 | AED 2.55m | AED 2.90m | -12.1% | Moderate |
Business Bay and Dubai Islands have asking medians close to achieved medians. Dubai South has the largest gap: live asking sits 55.6% above the recent transacted median, which leaves wide negotiation room unless the live mix is materially different.
Yield — TRANSACTED, indicative gross area yield
Yield here is median annual rent divided by median secondary sale price in the same area for the 4 weeks to 2026-05-17. It is area-level, not unit-matched.
| Area | Median rent | Rent deals | Median sale price | Sale deals | Indicative gross yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International City | AED 68,234 | 179 | AED 637,058 | 157 | 10.7% | Moderate |
| JVT | AED 73,251 | 187 | AED 933,031 | 289 | 7.9% | Moderate |
| Dubai South | AED 86,295 | 241 | AED 1.15m | 735 | 7.5% | Moderate |
| JVC | AED 74,254 | 741 | AED 1.01m | 566 | 7.3% | Moderate |
| Al Warsan | AED 60,206 | 148 | AED 850,000 | 137 | 7.1% | Moderate |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | AED 145,498 | 163 | AED 2.15m | 170 | 6.8% | Moderate |
The strongest apparent yields sit in affordable apartment corridors. Treat International City with care: the yield is high, but the area mix can move the denominator quickly. The more liquid yield read is JVC at 7.3% on 741 rental deals and 566 sale deals.
Multi-quarter trajectory — TRANSACTED
| Period | Deals | Avg AED/sqm | Median sale price | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 | 35,097 | AED 22,311 | AED 1.47m | Baseline |
| 2025 Q2 | 40,982 | AED 22,783 | AED 1.35m | More volume, softer median |
| 2025 Q3 | 48,921 | AED 22,560 | AED 1.29m | Peak volume |
| 2025 Q4 | 48,867 | AED 23,026 | AED 1.37m | Higher AED/sqm |
| 2026 Q1 | 39,317 | AED 23,966 | AED 1.55m | Stronger pricing |
| 2026 Q2 to 2026-05-17 | 16,360 | AED 23,906 | AED 1.43m | Pricing still elevated, volume lower |
Sale Quarterly Activity
Jan 2025–May 2026 · Deals (bars, left axis) · Avg AED/sqm (line, right axis)
The secondary market is not collapsing on the medium view. It is repricing in the latest settled window after a stronger Q1. Apartments show the stress first; villas remain the cleaner high-ticket support.
Notes
- TRANSACTED figures are DLD registrations for the fixed settled window ending 2026-05-17. The newest fortnight is intentionally excluded.
- ASKING figures are live listing snapshots dated 2026-06-01.
- Prior-period volume comparisons can be distorted by registration timing around late-March public holidays. Price per sqm is the cleaner signal this week.
- Rental transaction data excludes low-value and extreme per-sqm outliers under the standard rent filter.